{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "1.810285714260205656056655194",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-6.899305555666864206108253251"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "23.030293",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "3714554907.7886392"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2971643926.23091136"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "2476369938.525759466666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "2122602804.450650971428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1857277453.8943196"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1485821963.11545568"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1238184969.262879733333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "990547975.4103037866666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "742910981.55772784"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.045714285714",
|
"profit": "147465101.16479263"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.1",
|
"profit": "322579908.8"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.246666666667",
|
"profit": "795697108.3744086"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池7家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.045714285714",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000000000000000007920518080374535494825510687",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "312.8125000019550756473751572",
|
"profit_max": "147465101.16479263",
|
"profit_mean": "147465101.16479263",
|
"profit_median": "147465101.16479263",
|
"profit_min": "147465101.16479263"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.1",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "143.0",
|
"profit_max": "322579908.8",
|
"profit_mean": "322579908.8",
|
"profit_median": "322579908.8",
|
"profit_min": "322579908.8"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.246666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000000003820549261779588495960790601",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "57.97297297289463109545533653",
|
"profit_max": "795697108.3744086",
|
"profit_mean": "795697108.3744086",
|
"profit_median": "795697108.3744086",
|
"profit_min": "795697108.3744086"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "000066.SZ",
|
"company": "中国长城",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": null,
|
"annual_fcf": "-784553719.39",
|
"book_value_per_share": "3.388930882052502768889120599",
|
"current_fcf": "-796492122.81",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "3225799088.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "53587867775.57",
|
"market_cap": "46128926958.40",
|
"normalized_eps": "-0.1364862936218922075657800546",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-440277361.4900001",
|
"pb": "4.219619844043328079456607236",
|
"price": "14.3",
|
"ps": "2.852622824144569427060773524",
|
"reported_pe": "2286.568673669291880735755863",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "20173864.66",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-440277361.49",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.006253912320530732321913285878",
|
"ttm_revenue": "16170706680.17"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-460451226.1500001",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 2
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.715",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1426311412072284713530386762",
|
"implied_profit": "2306446347.92",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.572",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1141049129657827770824309410",
|
"implied_profit": "1845157078.336",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4766666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09508742747148564756869245079",
|
"implied_profit": "1537630898.613333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4085714285714285714285714286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08150350926127341220173638639",
|
"implied_profit": "1317969341.668571428571428571",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3575",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07131557060361423567651933811",
|
"implied_profit": "1153223173.96",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05705245648289138854121547049",
|
"implied_profit": "922578539.168",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2383333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04754371373574282378434622541",
|
"implied_profit": "768815449.3066666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1906666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03803497098859425902747698032",
|
"implied_profit": "615052359.4453333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02852622824144569427060773524",
|
"implied_profit": "461289269.584",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.42074577034097305",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4987317251576383",
|
"equity_value_high": "3008288063.68",
|
"equity_value_low": "1459904501.44",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "0.9325714285402513574025785700",
|
"price_low": "0.4525714285402513574025785700",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9347852147873950099718476524",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9683516483538285764054140860"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与7家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.29314392359219743",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.40160848256996795",
|
"equity_value_high": "8140073584.32",
|
"equity_value_low": "3539162427.84",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "2.523428571420068552018885065",
|
"price_low": "1.097142857100342760094425323",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8235364635370581432154625829",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9232767232796963104829073201"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.19667547352578774",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.27954056570758345",
|
"equity_value_high": "15432222837.20",
|
"equity_value_low": "8954080942.56",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "4.784000000064480147190121594",
|
"price_low": "2.775771428502555271352969023",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6654545454500363533433481403",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8058901098949262048004916767"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
