{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "16.56625000016391025583392090",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.3998339998352404950403371278"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "37.3477269",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "982623518.197929135"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "786098814.558343308"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "655082345.46528609"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "561499153.2559595057142857143"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "491311759.0989645675"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "393049407.279171654"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "327541172.732643045"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "262032938.186114436"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "196524703.639585827"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.725",
|
"profit": "381496872.675"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.9675",
|
"profit": "509100999.0525"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.21125",
|
"profit": "637362878.6587499"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池8家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.725",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "31.98620689655172413793103448",
|
"profit_max": "381496872.675",
|
"profit_mean": "381496872.675",
|
"profit_median": "381496872.675",
|
"profit_min": "381496872.675"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.9675",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "23.96899224806201550387596899",
|
"profit_max": "509100999.0525",
|
"profit_mean": "509100999.0525",
|
"profit_median": "509100999.0525",
|
"profit_min": "509100999.0525"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.21125",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001568964923254354505570508446",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "19.14551083591331569736194595",
|
"profit_max": "637362878.6587499",
|
"profit_mean": "637362878.6587499",
|
"profit_median": "637362878.6587499",
|
"profit_min": "637362878.6587499"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "601133.SH",
|
"company": "柏诚股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.3762066269839168297987269427",
|
"annual_fcf": "53960709.25",
|
"book_value_per_share": "5.753158070700690574147181638",
|
"current_fcf": "-809355854.93",
|
"deduct_pe": "66.34906828165829759154083645",
|
"diluted_shares": "526202583.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "10868041490.000",
|
"market_cap": "12202637899.770",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.3495150813807388303907280516",
|
"normalized_pe": "66.34906828165830516745817974",
|
"normalized_profit": "183915738.619999979",
|
"pb": "4.030829626966191748385524391",
|
"price": "23.19",
|
"ps": "3.084632304709944904008632369",
|
"reported_pe": "63.53934800768145102856144385",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "192048522.41",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "183915738.62",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3649706949652126660123217221",
|
"ttm_revenue": "3955945699.31"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-8132783.790000021",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.1595",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1542316152354972452004316185",
|
"implied_profit": "610131894.9885",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9276",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1233852921883977961603452948",
|
"implied_profit": "488105515.9908",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.773",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1028210768236648301336210790",
|
"implied_profit": "406754596.659",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6625714285714285714285714286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08813235156314128297167521054",
|
"implied_profit": "348646797.1362857142857142857",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.57975",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07711580761774862260021580923",
|
"implied_profit": "305065947.49425",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4638",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06169264609419889808017264738",
|
"implied_profit": "244052757.9954",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3865",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05141053841183241506681053949",
|
"implied_profit": "203377298.3295",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3092",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04112843072946593205344843159",
|
"implied_profit": "162701838.6636",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2319",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03084632304709944904008632369",
|
"implied_profit": "122026378.9977",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.18537451901293622",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2993740746234109",
|
"equity_value_high": "4377676613.94",
|
"equity_value_low": "2060083112.4",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "8.319374999989310200706483419",
|
"price_low": "3.914999999914481605651867353",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6412516170767869684904491842",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8311772315690176107955210283"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与8家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.0013332233859608689",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.15846108194344566",
|
"equity_value_high": "12284199300.24",
|
"equity_value_low": "5150207781.18",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "23.34500000019954292014564284",
|
"price_low": "9.787500000128277591522198970",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.006683915489415391123141132",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5779430789077931180887365688"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.1384903297871194",
|
"cagr_low": "0.020603757593432137",
|
"equity_value_high": "23339978670.38",
|
"equity_value_low": "13512619230.04",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "44.35550000023470048226654182",
|
"price_low": "25.67949999979380564918283573",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.912699439423661081598384727",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.107352307020000243604261998"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
