{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "16.04874999998195674431131874",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-1.493652153597320265030359818"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "64.4526102",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1116286386.17225565"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "893029108.93780452"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "744190924.11483710"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "637877934.9555746571428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "558143193.086127825"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "446514554.46890226"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "372095462.05741855"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "297676369.64593484"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "223257277.23445113"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.495714285714",
|
"profit": "171710379.7213296"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.72",
|
"profit": "249400666.79999998"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.784",
|
"profit": "271569614.96000004"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池7家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.495714285714",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000001694714090506739624518618699",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "80.73198847266901115980328276",
|
"profit_max": "171710379.7213296",
|
"profit_mean": "171710379.7213296",
|
"profit_median": "171710379.7213296",
|
"profit_min": "171710379.7213296"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.72",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000008019224750525006055775689732",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "55.58333333333333779068575717",
|
"profit_max": "249400666.79999998",
|
"profit_mean": "249400666.79999998",
|
"profit_median": "249400666.79999998",
|
"profit_min": "249400666.79999998"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.784",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001472918831729082409872731996",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "51.04591836734693125686075946",
|
"profit_max": "271569614.96000004",
|
"profit_mean": "271569614.96000004",
|
"profit_median": "271569614.96000004",
|
"profit_min": "271569614.96000004"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "603009.SH",
|
"company": "北特科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.577840371406897485614728251",
|
"annual_fcf": "30112941.55",
|
"book_value_per_share": "5.935349064232735018493543178",
|
"current_fcf": "-102312143.91",
|
"deduct_pe": "122.7644988495071402989533316",
|
"diluted_shares": "346389815.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "14533518536.610",
|
"market_cap": "13862520396.300",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.3259900083089913801305041258",
|
"normalized_pe": "122.7644988495071544323564004",
|
"normalized_profit": "112919618.669999987",
|
"pb": "6.742653139166870826008835958",
|
"price": "40.02",
|
"ps": "5.858114035369006220359515723",
|
"reported_pe": "112.0957182599702202242785190",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "123666814.50",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "112919618.67",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3570163126765144639140154857",
|
"ttm_revenue": "2366379403.44"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-10747195.830000013",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.001",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2929057017684503110179757862",
|
"implied_profit": "693126019.815",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.6008",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2343245614147602488143806289",
|
"implied_profit": "554500815.852",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.334",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1952704678456335406786505241",
|
"implied_profit": "462084013.210",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.143428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1673746867248287491531290207",
|
"implied_profit": "396072011.3228571428571428571",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.0005",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1464528508842251555089878931",
|
"implied_profit": "346563009.9075",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8004",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1171622807073801244071903145",
|
"implied_profit": "277250407.926",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09763523392281677033932526206",
|
"implied_profit": "231042006.605",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5336",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07810818713825341627146020965",
|
"implied_profit": "184833605.284",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4002",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05858114035369006220359515723",
|
"implied_profit": "138625203.963",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.26053348260281606",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3686242842304942",
|
"equity_value_high": "3065030277.96",
|
"equity_value_low": "1390854075.66",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "8.848499999805132838562242368",
|
"price_low": "4.015285714044450181077061980",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7788980509793819880419229793",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8996680231373200854303582714"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与7家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.10640148902686852",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2532226717975553",
|
"equity_value_high": "7898677467.20",
|
"equity_value_low": "3219569619.75",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "22.80285714289838458443127146",
|
"price_low": "9.294642857065528904191366019",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4302134646951927889947208531",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7677500535465884831536390300"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.018658429107417218",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.08920429604856384",
|
"equity_value_high": "15204954124.25",
|
"equity_value_low": "8688545214.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "43.89549999976182902490940734",
|
"price_low": "25.08314285741917671568951876",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.096839080453818816214627870",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.3732348111589411115519860380"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
