{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "1133.618062500011481699493937",
|
"price_label": "当前价格低于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "BELOW_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.6780926380131700627728796609"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "587.7073092",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "12316736851.62427782"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "9853389481.299422256"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "8211157901.08285188"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "7038135343.785301611428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "6158368425.81213891"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "4926694740.649711128"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "4105578950.54142594"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "3284463160.433140752"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "2463347370.324855564"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "32.71625",
|
"profit": "13712861341.48875"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "27.41125",
|
"profit": "11489295700.05375"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "26.51375",
|
"profit": "11113112822.921251"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池8家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260805",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "32.71625",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "11.15409009284377029763496733",
|
"profit_max": "13712861341.48875",
|
"profit_mean": "13712861341.48875",
|
"profit_median": "13712861341.48875",
|
"profit_min": "13712861341.48875"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "27.41125",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "13.31278216060923890738291760",
|
"profit_max": "11489295700.05375",
|
"profit_mean": "11489295700.05375",
|
"profit_median": "11489295700.05375",
|
"profit_min": "11489295700.05375"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "26.51375",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000008998378905480550734117899083",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "13.76342463815944433220935168",
|
"profit_max": "11113112822.921251",
|
"profit_mean": "11113112822.921251",
|
"profit_median": "11113112822.921251",
|
"profit_min": "11113112822.921251"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"code": "301308.SZ",
|
"company": "江波龙",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-0.8439560089569754619818455112",
|
"annual_fcf": "-2045973043.5",
|
"book_value_per_share": "29.06941367523541426509773758",
|
"current_fcf": "-3053262775.55",
|
"deduct_pe": "28.14840653469196283988725877",
|
"diluted_shares": "419145267.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "165661619421.850",
|
"market_cap": "152954490833.640",
|
"normalized_eps": "12.96414415324890049014915872",
|
"normalized_pe": "28.14840653469196639660331825",
|
"normalized_profit": "5433859662.5399993134",
|
"pb": "12.55340076951327606656200157",
|
"price": "364.92",
|
"ps": "5.382226949866742997116982832",
|
"reported_pe": "28.13034149674325735063003422",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "5437349235.57",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "5433859662.54",
|
"ttm_eps": "12.97246960340840494329141500",
|
"ttm_revenue": "28418439478.37"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-3489573.0300006866",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "18.246",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2691113474933371498558491416",
|
"implied_profit": "7647724541.682",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "14.5968",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2152890779946697198846793133",
|
"implied_profit": "6118179633.3456",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "12.164",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1794075649955580999038994277",
|
"implied_profit": "5098483027.788",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "10.42628571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1537779128533355142033423666",
|
"implied_profit": "4370128309.532571428571428571",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "9.123",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1345556737466685749279245708",
|
"implied_profit": "3823862270.841",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "7.2984",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1076445389973348599423396566",
|
"implied_profit": "3059089816.6728",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.082",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08970378249777904995194971386",
|
"implied_profit": "2549241513.894",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.8656",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07176302599822323996155977109",
|
"implied_profit": "2039393211.1152",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.6492",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05382226949866742997116982832",
|
"implied_profit": "1529544908.3364",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.09860308563799292",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.06198415583706829",
|
"equity_value_high": "244774574945.6",
|
"equity_value_low": "111074176866.06",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "583.9850625000615836609220259",
|
"price_low": "265.0016250000026840336479333",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.600309828181687996440102011",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.2738089855310679490473311046"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与8家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.3406104381766588",
|
"cagr_low": "0.13489851918031426",
|
"equity_value_high": "662331202793.82",
|
"equity_value_low": "287970088171.36",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "1580.194874999793329409109134",
|
"price_low": "687.0412500002296339898787405",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "3.330250123314132767206810079",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.882717444920063668721579361"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.5399570050254658",
|
"cagr_low": "0.3664103204825102",
|
"equity_value_high": "1324662405588.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "728564323073.16",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "3160.389750000445549585556933",
|
"price_low": "1738.214362499672458427163869",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "7.660500246630619175670165880",
|
"upside_to_low": "3.763275135645271452447560750"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
