{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "4.68468",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-73.80553634399788245942092096"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "564.3871244",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "11569936050.20000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "9255948840.16000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "7713290700.133333333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "6611392028.685714285714285714"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "5784968025.10000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "4627974420.08000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "3856645350.066666666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "3085316280.053333333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "2313987210.04000000"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.1352",
|
"profit": "55431999.99999999"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.6823",
|
"profit": "279743000.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.934285714286",
|
"profit": "793057142.85726"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池10家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260805",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.1352",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001804012122961466626499517059",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "2592.011834319527094821012108",
|
"profit_max": "55431999.99999999",
|
"profit_mean": "55431999.99999999",
|
"profit_median": "55431999.99999999",
|
"profit_min": "55431999.99999999"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.6823",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "513.6157115638282280521764620",
|
"profit_max": "279743000.0",
|
"profit_mean": "279743000.0",
|
"profit_median": "279743000.0",
|
"profit_min": "279743000.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.934285714286",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "181.1728212702834308978921295",
|
"profit_max": "793057142.85726",
|
"profit_mean": "793057142.85726",
|
"profit_median": "793057142.85726",
|
"profit_min": "793057142.85726"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"code": "688702.SH",
|
"company": "盛科通信",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-23",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": null,
|
"annual_fcf": "74062714.57",
|
"book_value_per_share": "5.443519241512195121951219512",
|
"current_fcf": "-191769358.96",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "410000000.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "142537329663.090",
|
"market_cap": "143680400000.000",
|
"normalized_eps": "-0.5138836725853657804878048780",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-210692305.75999997",
|
"pb": "64.37747061267826123747657525",
|
"price": "350.44",
|
"ps": "122.1821211770500876648517585",
|
"reported_pe": null,
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "-151776305.10",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-210692305.76",
|
"ttm_eps": "-0.37018611",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1175952738.55"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-58916000.65999997",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "使用正常化情景、PB 或反向估值。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_attributable_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-PROFIT",
|
"message": "TTM 归母利润不为正，报告 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 2
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "17.522",
|
"implied_margin": "6.109106058852504383242587926",
|
"implied_profit": "7184020000.000",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "14.0176",
|
"implied_margin": "4.887284847082003506594070340",
|
"implied_profit": "5747216000.000",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "11.68133333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "4.072737372568336255495058617",
|
"implied_profit": "4789346666.666666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "10.01257142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "3.490917747915716790424335958",
|
"implied_profit": "4105154285.714285714285714286",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "8.761",
|
"implied_margin": "3.054553029426252191621293963",
|
"implied_profit": "3592010000.000",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "7.0088",
|
"implied_margin": "2.443642423541001753297035170",
|
"implied_profit": "2873608000.000",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.840666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "2.036368686284168127747529308",
|
"implied_profit": "2394673333.333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.672533333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "1.629094949027334502198023447",
|
"implied_profit": "1915738666.666666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.5044",
|
"implied_margin": "1.221821211770500876648517585",
|
"implied_profit": "1436804000.000",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.6305120766866943",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.6845216158359206",
|
"equity_value_high": "989461200.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "448999200.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "2.41332",
|
"price_low": "1.09512",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9931134573678803789521744093",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9968750142677776509530875471"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与10家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.5491189008572654",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.6183050070538056",
|
"equity_value_high": "2677365600.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "1164072000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "6.53016",
|
"price_low": "2.8392",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9813658258189704371647072252",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9918981851386827987672640110"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.48207362311548574",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.5404417497919314",
|
"equity_value_high": "5354731200.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "2945102160.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "13.06032",
|
"price_low": "7.183176",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9627316516379408743294144504",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9795024084008674808811779477"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
