{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "28.32812499958089648495999194",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.6891340320161649247944110749"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "77.0629035",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1120491838.772328825"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "896393471.01786306"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "746994559.18155255"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "640281050.7270450428571428571"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "560245919.3861644125"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "448196735.50893153"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "373497279.590776275"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "298797823.67262102"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "224098367.754465765"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.875",
|
"profit": "254449369.125"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.835",
|
"profit": "533616676.965"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "2.495",
|
"profit": "725544201.105"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池2家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.875",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "54.68571428571428571428571429",
|
"profit_max": "254449369.125",
|
"profit_mean": "254449369.125",
|
"profit_median": "254449369.125",
|
"profit_min": "254449369.125"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.835",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "26.07629427792915531335149864",
|
"profit_max": "533616676.965",
|
"profit_mean": "533616676.965",
|
"profit_median": "533616676.965",
|
"profit_min": "533616676.965"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.495",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "19.17835671342685370741482966",
|
"profit_max": "725544201.105",
|
"profit_mean": "725544201.105",
|
"profit_median": "725544201.105",
|
"profit_min": "725544201.105"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "688596.SH",
|
"company": "正帆科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-18",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.447189001320798551140553707",
|
"annual_fcf": "-169161713.90",
|
"book_value_per_share": "12.87754968917924861842590745",
|
"current_fcf": "-162713971.30",
|
"deduct_pe": "892.1590354603329759220523596",
|
"diluted_shares": "290799279.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "16690390020.340",
|
"market_cap": "13914745500.150",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.05363393531660025195592042716",
|
"normalized_pe": "892.1590354603335479395172460",
|
"normalized_profit": "15596709.71999999",
|
"pb": "3.715769005357239087054700831",
|
"price": "47.85",
|
"ps": "2.670868644829581776494179347",
|
"reported_pe": "182.4146956852547387548246181",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "76280836.08",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "15596709.72",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.2623143920518454930557100865",
|
"ttm_revenue": "5209820230.99"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-60684126.36000001",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.3925",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1335434322414790888247089674",
|
"implied_profit": "695737275.0075",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.914",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1068347457931832710597671739",
|
"implied_profit": "556589820.006",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.595",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08902895482765272588313931158",
|
"implied_profit": "463824850.005",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.367142857142857142857142857",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07631053270941662218554798136",
|
"implied_profit": "397564157.1471428571428571429",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.19625",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06677171612073954441235448368",
|
"implied_profit": "347868637.50375",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.957",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05341737289659163552988358695",
|
"implied_profit": "278294910.003",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7975",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04451447741382636294156965579",
|
"implied_profit": "231912425.0025",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.638",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03561158193106109035325572463",
|
"implied_profit": "185529940.002",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4785",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02670868644829581776494179347",
|
"implied_profit": "139147455.0015",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2006207583507731",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.31746924438246993",
|
"equity_value_high": "4541921238.96",
|
"equity_value_low": "2061039889.98",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "15.61875000027080534817969752",
|
"price_low": "7.087500000232118869868312156",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6735893416871305047402362065",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8518808777380957393966914910"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与2家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.03400075158617588",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1927176143221988",
|
"equity_value_high": "11704670979.60",
|
"equity_value_low": "4770925671.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "40.24999999948418028918152854",
|
"price_low": "16.40624999967761268073845534",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.1588296760818353126607831026",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6571316614487437266303353116"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.10119171510247149",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.015410215359000112",
|
"equity_value_high": "22531491635.95",
|
"equity_value_low": "12875138077.60",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "77.48124999976358263254153391",
|
"price_low": "44.27499999957015024098460712",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.619252873558277588976834564",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.0747126436871441955907083152"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
