{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "29.78249999999561957133219674",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-3.066146226811644806967158761"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "195.032761",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "83481881479.51010975"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "66785505183.6080878"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "55654587653.00673983333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "47703932274.0057770"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "41740940739.755054875"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "33392752591.8040439"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "27827293826.50336991666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "22261835061.20269593333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "16696376295.90202195"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.802222222222",
|
"profit": "6867668809.32032"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.978888888889",
|
"profit": "8380077868.43984"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.153333333333",
|
"profit": "9873462914.23048"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池10家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.802222222222",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000002608017436090168315929865814",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "150.9556786704019228438447047",
|
"profit_max": "6867668809.32032",
|
"profit_mean": "6867668809.32032",
|
"profit_median": "6867668809.32032",
|
"profit_min": "6867668809.32032"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.978888888889",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000001068665487432670974317921934",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "123.7116912599178547055760760",
|
"profit_max": "8380077868.43984",
|
"profit_mean": "8380077868.43984",
|
"profit_median": "8380077868.43984",
|
"profit_min": "8380077868.43984"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.153333333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000002721081775805092680405083075",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "105.0000000000303439636733927",
|
"profit_max": "9873462914.23048",
|
"profit_mean": "9873462914.23048",
|
"profit_median": "9873462914.23048",
|
"profit_min": "9873462914.23048"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "688981.SH",
|
"company": "中芯国际",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-05-15",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "3.983741058345867883526486420",
|
"annual_fcf": "-39869604000.0",
|
"book_value_per_share": "17.49907755034927642931592915",
|
"current_fcf": "-4003316000.0",
|
"deduct_pe": "247.6285124222274665071724620",
|
"diluted_shares": "8560805995.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "1178843667994.50",
|
"market_cap": "1036713605994.50",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.4890389996508734105473675087",
|
"normalized_pe": "247.6285124222274665071724620",
|
"normalized_profit": "4186568000.0",
|
"pb": "6.920364782175782728576909176",
|
"price": "121.1",
|
"ps": "15.10378498032286885105586338",
|
"reported_pe": "205.4701077310606593627002227",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "5045569000.0",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "4186568000.0",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.5893801358127845297585207104",
|
"ttm_revenue": "68639325000.0"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-859001000.0",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.055",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7551892490161434425527931692",
|
"implied_profit": "51835680299.725",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.844",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6041513992129147540422345354",
|
"implied_profit": "41468544239.78",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.036666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5034594993440956283685287795",
|
"implied_profit": "34557120199.81666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.46",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4315367137235105386015960967",
|
"implied_profit": "29620388742.70",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.0275",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3775946245080717212763965846",
|
"implied_profit": "25917840149.8625",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.422",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3020756996064573770211172677",
|
"implied_profit": "20734272119.89",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.018333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2517297496720478141842643897",
|
"implied_profit": "17278560099.90833333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.614666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2013837997376382513474115118",
|
"implied_profit": "13822848079.92666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.211",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1510378498032286885105586338",
|
"implied_profit": "10367136059.945",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.3384686994798065",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4310440927617919",
|
"equity_value_high": "131344165978.20",
|
"equity_value_low": "61809019283.80",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "15.34249999998977899977512573",
|
"price_low": "7.219999999988318856885857977",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8733071841454188356748544531",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9403798513626067807028418004"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与10家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.1927423304631677",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.31661315795793876",
|
"equity_value_high": "355401860882.40",
|
"equity_value_low": "154522548209.70",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "41.51499999999707971422146449",
|
"price_low": "18.04999999999415942844292899",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6571841453344584664391291124",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8509496284063240344472095046"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.08541192538818354",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1772067563161882",
|
"equity_value_high": "663416806980.60",
|
"equity_value_low": "390942046970.55",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "77.49466666667523283828370415",
|
"price_low": "45.66649999998627465684088312",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3600770712908733869671040120",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6229025598679911258724947719"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
