{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "15.59512500006337783118416352",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.8339064290849718093269467548"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "46.060586",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "3134160216.8083350"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2507328173.4466680"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "2089440144.5388900"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1790948695.319048571428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1567080108.4041675"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1253664086.7233340"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1044720072.2694450"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "835776057.8155560"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "626832043.3616670"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.6825",
|
"profit": "928804660.875"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.9675",
|
"profit": "1316657156.625"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.145",
|
"profit": "1558214412.75"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池5家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260805",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.6825",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "41.90476190476190476190476190",
|
"profit_max": "928804660.875",
|
"profit_mean": "928804660.875",
|
"profit_median": "928804660.875",
|
"profit_min": "928804660.875"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.9675",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "29.56072351421188630490956072",
|
"profit_max": "1316657156.625",
|
"profit_mean": "1316657156.625",
|
"profit_median": "1316657156.625",
|
"profit_min": "1316657156.625"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.145",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "24.97816593886462882096069869",
|
"profit_max": "1558214412.75",
|
"profit_mean": "1558214412.75",
|
"profit_median": "1558214412.75",
|
"profit_min": "1558214412.75"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"code": "300115.SZ",
|
"company": "长盈精密",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-23",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.9398810337278593108083778917",
|
"annual_fcf": "-2265570068.22",
|
"book_value_per_share": "6.243132113826290880584078335",
|
"current_fcf": "-901750815.70",
|
"deduct_pe": "74.61857299592029672655372461",
|
"diluted_shares": "1360885950.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "47131066469.13",
|
"market_cap": "38921338170.00",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.3832825910723819141493818788",
|
"normalized_pe": "74.61857299592029958767397265",
|
"normalized_profit": "521603893.06999998",
|
"pb": "4.581033923126709499711991148",
|
"price": "28.6",
|
"ps": "1.990415326842433888131448106",
|
"reported_pe": "71.02113019327552841276270733",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "548024764.80",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "521603893.07",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.4026970553998297947010181125",
|
"ttm_revenue": "19554380256.78"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-26420871.73000002",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.43",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09952076634212169440657240528",
|
"implied_profit": "1946066908.50",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.144",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07961661307369735552525792422",
|
"implied_profit": "1556853526.80",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9533333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06634717756141446293771493685",
|
"implied_profit": "1297377939.00",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8171428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05686900933835525394661280299",
|
"implied_profit": "1112038233.428571428571428571",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.715",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04976038317106084720328620264",
|
"implied_profit": "973033454.25",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.572",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03980830653684867776262896211",
|
"implied_profit": "778426763.40",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4766666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03317358878070723146885746843",
|
"implied_profit": "648688969.50",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3813333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02653887102456578517508597474",
|
"implied_profit": "518951175.60",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01990415326842433888131448106",
|
"implied_profit": "389213381.70",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2282122814639056",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.33621707506706633",
|
"equity_value_high": "10658033483.58",
|
"equity_value_low": "5015545168.68",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "7.831687500028933357714509434",
|
"price_low": "3.685499999966933305469132075",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7261647727262610714085835862",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8711363636375198144940862911"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与5家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.05132272190468301",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.20271411000110218",
|
"equity_value_high": "29907510080.28",
|
"equity_value_low": "12538862921.88",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "21.97650000007715562057202516",
|
"price_low": "9.213750000049600041796301887",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2315909090882113419380410783",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6778409090891748237134160179"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.0786218633076392",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.033065544857651896",
|
"equity_value_high": "56824269152.38",
|
"equity_value_low": "32898261088.28",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "41.75535000003490373311591614",
|
"price_low": "24.17415000006429635047668763",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.459977272728493137521535529",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.1547499999977518758574584745"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
