{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "80.3323125005729085504622018",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-3.064118034665958757602704804"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "525.7993048",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1388129829.56599952"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1110503863.652799616"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "925419886.3773330133333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "793217045.46628544"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "694064914.78299976"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "555251931.826399808"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "462709943.1886665066666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "370167954.5509332053333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "277625965.913199904"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.622875",
|
"profit": "85689013.9105"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "2.313625",
|
"profit": "122161130.5915"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "3.29275",
|
"profit": "173859662.977"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池8家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.622875",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "201.1738427173996765000385119",
|
"profit_max": "85689013.9105",
|
"profit_mean": "85689013.9105",
|
"profit_median": "85689013.9105",
|
"profit_min": "85689013.9105"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.313625",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "141.1118915122372899670430601",
|
"profit_max": "122161130.5915",
|
"profit_mean": "122161130.5915",
|
"profit_median": "122161130.5915",
|
"profit_min": "122161130.5915"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.29275",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "99.15116543922253435578164149",
|
"profit_max": "173859662.977",
|
"profit_mean": "173859662.977",
|
"profit_median": "173859662.977",
|
"profit_min": "173859662.977"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "688502.SH",
|
"company": "茂莱光学",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-30",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.584852080708007949783872787",
|
"annual_fcf": "-107555866.06",
|
"book_value_per_share": "23.82260698939340783581323507",
|
"current_fcf": "-81317625.90",
|
"deduct_pe": "1542.558877871691947230626807",
|
"diluted_shares": "52800748.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "17305893240.240",
|
"market_cap": "17238388207.040",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.2116483232396632524978623409",
|
"normalized_pe": "1542.558877871691533127893456",
|
"normalized_profit": "11175189.780000003",
|
"pb": "13.70462939448060469404467743",
|
"price": "326.48",
|
"ps": "23.55857623616667038117698959",
|
"reported_pe": "927.7248222322594618582599117",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "18581359.25",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "11175189.78",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3519146973069396668395682576",
|
"ttm_revenue": "731724533.53"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-7406169.469999997",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "16.324",
|
"implied_margin": "1.177928811808333519058849479",
|
"implied_profit": "861919410.352",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "13.0592",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9423430494466668152470795836",
|
"implied_profit": "689535528.2816",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "10.88266666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7852858745388890127058996530",
|
"implied_profit": "574612940.2346666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "9.328",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6731021781761905823193425597",
|
"implied_profit": "492525377.344",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "8.162",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5889644059041667595294247397",
|
"implied_profit": "430959705.176",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.5296",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4711715247233334076235397918",
|
"implied_profit": "344767764.1408",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.441333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3926429372694445063529498265",
|
"implied_profit": "287306470.1173333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.353066666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3141143498155556050823598612",
|
"implied_profit": "229845176.0938666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.2648",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2355857623616667038117698959",
|
"implied_profit": "172383882.0704",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.33840268540698093",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4382847662111562",
|
"equity_value_high": "2185069854.80",
|
"equity_value_low": "964001406.50",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "41.38331250155774308348813543",
|
"price_low": "18.25734375013020648874140950",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8732439582775124262328836822",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9440782168888440134503142321"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与8家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.19266177438724197",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.31654496293641343",
|
"equity_value_high": "5912541960.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "2570670417.20",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "111.9783750033238165489625261",
|
"price_low": "48.68624999782200055196187751",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6570130635771752739862701357",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8508752450446520443764951069"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.07416273319995359",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.17712464994849264",
|
"equity_value_high": "11726541554.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "6503796156.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "222.0904437565922361554423434",
|
"price_low": "123.1762125036561982038587787",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3197425760947309600727691025",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6227143699348928013848971493"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
