{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "9.25425000010936994788113035",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.3019423508200390662353877085"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "10.4038946",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "273486433.47173610"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "218789146.77738888"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "182324288.98115740"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "156277961.98384920"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "136743216.73586805"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "109394573.38869444"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "91162144.49057870"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "72929715.59246296"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "54697286.69434722"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.405",
|
"profit": "212924120.85000002"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.54",
|
"profit": "283898827.8"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.62",
|
"profit": "325957913.4"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池2家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260806",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.405",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000009393017531390689370737159355",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "15.95061728395061578570633944",
|
"profit_max": "212924120.85000002",
|
"profit_mean": "212924120.85000002",
|
"profit_median": "212924120.85000002",
|
"profit_min": "212924120.85000002"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.54",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "11.96296296296296296296296296",
|
"profit_max": "283898827.8",
|
"profit_mean": "283898827.8",
|
"profit_median": "283898827.8",
|
"profit_min": "283898827.8"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.62",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "10.41935483870967741935483871",
|
"profit_max": "325957913.4",
|
"profit_mean": "325957913.4",
|
"profit_median": "325957913.4",
|
"profit_min": "325957913.4"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"code": "002560.SZ",
|
"company": "通达股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "4.504239035593519624664170026",
|
"annual_fcf": "592579807.85",
|
"book_value_per_share": "5.231935686514307481758471706",
|
"current_fcf": "-314017694.63",
|
"deduct_pe": "20.46813191872776632740141884",
|
"diluted_shares": "525738570.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "3402835425.170",
|
"market_cap": "3396271162.200",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.3156125837790443508833677544",
|
"normalized_pe": "20.46813191872776965796570959",
|
"normalized_profit": "165929708.469999973",
|
"pb": "1.234724657768847785985153086",
|
"price": "6.46",
|
"ps": "0.4176438851453715592448395478",
|
"reported_pe": "19.47932910255154532371587132",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "174352573.66",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "165929708.47",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3316335981588720036272020141",
|
"ttm_revenue": "8131978661.72"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-8422865.190000027",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.323",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02088219425726857796224197739",
|
"implied_profit": "169813558.110",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2584",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01670575540581486236979358191",
|
"implied_profit": "135850846.488",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2153333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01392146283817905197482798493",
|
"implied_profit": "113209038.740",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1845714285714285714285714286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01193268243272490169270970137",
|
"implied_profit": "97036318.920",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1615",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01044109712863428898112098870",
|
"implied_profit": "84906779.055",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1292",
|
"implied_margin": "0.008352877702907431184896790957",
|
"implied_profit": "67925423.244",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1076666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.006960731419089525987413992464",
|
"implied_profit": "56604519.370",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.08613333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.005568585135271620789931193971",
|
"implied_profit": "45283615.496",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.0646",
|
"implied_margin": "0.004176438851453715592448395478",
|
"implied_profit": "33962711.622",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.06374308164565046",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1947638698724269",
|
"equity_value_high": "2443304286.72",
|
"equity_value_low": "1149790252.56",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "4.647374999935804595808901751",
|
"price_low": "2.186999999942937418496801557",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2805921052730952638066715556",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6614551083679663438859440314"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与2家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.15084192657449624",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.03281120897104528",
|
"equity_value_high": "6856156691.44",
|
"equity_value_low": "2874475631.52",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "13.04100000013314602350746303",
|
"price_low": "5.467500000085593872254797665",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.018730650175409601162145980",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.1536377708845829919110220333"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.30847791116678547",
|
"cagr_low": "0.1729897373143543",
|
"equity_value_high": "13026697713.66",
|
"equity_value_low": "7541772360.64",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "24.77790000010841890485607704",
|
"price_low": "14.34510000025297744466417977",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "2.835588235310900759265646601",
|
"upside_to_low": "1.220603715209439232920151667"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
