{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "35.48160000008011352074107610",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.3547867063461473909604246636"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "77.4172157",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "2628455531.052866185"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2102764424.842292948"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1752303687.368577456666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1501974589.173066391428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1314227765.5264330925"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1051382212.421146474"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "876151843.6842887283333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "700921474.9474309826666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "525691106.210573237"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.896",
|
"profit": "608416651.136"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.320357142857",
|
"profit": "896570615.1345458"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.97875",
|
"profit": "1343643357.62875"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池13家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260806",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.896",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "53.64955357142857142857142857",
|
"profit_max": "608416651.136",
|
"profit_mean": "608416651.136",
|
"profit_median": "608416651.136",
|
"profit_min": "608416651.136"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.320357142857",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000005792851017340777140672931007",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "36.40681633757494469123094003",
|
"profit_max": "896570615.1345458",
|
"profit_mean": "896570615.1345458",
|
"profit_median": "896570615.1345458",
|
"profit_min": "896570615.1345458"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.97875",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "24.29311433986102337334175616",
|
"profit_max": "1343643357.62875",
|
"profit_mean": "1343643357.62875",
|
"profit_median": "1343643357.62875",
|
"profit_min": "1343643357.62875"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"code": "603308.SH",
|
"company": "应流股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-24",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.7354758788505650169875427684",
|
"annual_fcf": "-368881787.02",
|
"book_value_per_share": "7.632071079820000411435945306",
|
"current_fcf": "-427699496.46",
|
"deduct_pe": "93.58871772847582532016025324",
|
"diluted_shares": "679036441.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "38408206171.019999",
|
"market_cap": "32641281718.870",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.5136302875680276840989156869",
|
"normalized_pe": "93.58871772847580814662269623",
|
"normalized_profit": "348773682.460000064",
|
"pb": "6.298421424179622979213049932",
|
"price": "48.07",
|
"ps": "10.37886404576975323841979811",
|
"reported_pe": "86.63597336079152968327478198",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "376763605.84",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "348773682.46",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.5548503483629680487206724153",
|
"ttm_revenue": "3144976326.40"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-27989923.379999936",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.4035",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5189432022884876619209899055",
|
"implied_profit": "1632064085.9435",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.9228",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4151545618307901295367919244",
|
"implied_profit": "1305651268.7548",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.602333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3459621348589917746139932702",
|
"implied_profit": "1088042723.962333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.373428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2965389727362786639548513746",
|
"implied_profit": "932608049.1105714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.20175",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2594716011442438309604949527",
|
"implied_profit": "816032042.97175",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9614",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2075772809153950647683959622",
|
"implied_profit": "652825634.3774",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8011666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1729810674294958873069966352",
|
"implied_profit": "544021361.9811666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6409333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1383848539435967098455973081",
|
"implied_profit": "435217089.5849333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4807",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1037886404576975323841979811",
|
"implied_profit": "326412817.1887",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.1758375738732092",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2867959241660569",
|
"equity_value_high": "12411699683.2",
|
"equity_value_low": "6023324846.22",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "18.27840000003770048034874170",
|
"price_low": "8.870399999961121379640360126",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6197545246507655402465416746",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8154691075522962059571383373"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与13家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.00571422533159005",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.14860905708186678",
|
"equity_value_high": "33584599142.88",
|
"equity_value_low": "14601999627.20",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "49.45920000025447824235400645",
|
"price_low": "21.50399999990574879912814576",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.028899521536394388232868867",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5526523819449604992900323328"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.14296945417130535",
|
"cagr_low": "0.025069071383531094",
|
"equity_value_high": "63670802541.45",
|
"equity_value_low": "36943059057.12",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "93.76640000009955283092089604",
|
"price_low": "54.40512000020923766593551641",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.950622009571448987537360017",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.131789473688563296566164269"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
