{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "27.06880055480129304414827589",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.01001889406402247511007925134"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0.15",
|
"required_exit_price": "43.8813434",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "5026023935.4927045"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "4020819148.3941636"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "3350682623.6618030"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "3015614361.2956227"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "22",
|
"required_profit": "2741467601.177838818181818182"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "24",
|
"required_profit": "2513011967.74635225"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2412491489.03649816"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "2010409574.1970818"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1723208206.454641542857142857"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1507807180.64781135"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总页为一季报前后混合样本，作为C1市场基准，不替代逐家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.2285581826611034",
|
"profit": "1678256838.2012053"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": false,
|
"institution": "ETNet公开一致预期汇总（9份报告）",
|
"report_date": "2026-04-17",
|
"source_id": "SRC-ETNET-CONSENSUS",
|
"statuses": [
|
"STALE_BEFORE_LATEST_DISCLOSURE"
|
]
|
},
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "一季报后下调2026年归母净利润至13.8亿元人民币，目标价28港元。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.1637054444120183",
|
"profit": "1599443671.7663422"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "中金公司",
|
"report_date": "2026-06-02",
|
"source_id": "SRC-CICC-20260602",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
},
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "经调整净利润口径22.75亿元人民币，与报告利润口径不完全可比。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.9184274536502475",
|
"profit": "2636764024.107557"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "美国银行证券",
|
"report_date": "2026-06-02",
|
"source_id": "SRC-BOFA-20260602",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.5410664490311329",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000004592447206719561954812402130",
|
"institution_count": 2,
|
"pe_on_mean": "17.74096114881265004756135881",
|
"profit_max": "2636764024.107557",
|
"profit_mean": "2118103847.9369496",
|
"profit_median": "2118103847.9369496",
|
"profit_min": "1599443671.7663422"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"code": "03888.HK",
|
"company": "金山软件",
|
"currency": "HKD",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-05-27",
|
"market": "香港联合交易所主板",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.143301596297722652238106360",
|
"annual_fcf": "2259527121.0013907",
|
"book_value_per_share": "22.60968957822369164943947257",
|
"current_fcf": "9242002.78164117",
|
"deduct_pe": "11.53048652524031362908457001",
|
"diluted_shares": "1374440310",
|
"enterprise_value": "14826063397.6067673",
|
"market_cap": "37577198075.40",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.7931563329667879865950671950",
|
"normalized_pe": "34.46987543771501849069110973",
|
"normalized_profit": "1090146036.1613353",
|
"pb": "1.209216071074777692931161414",
|
"price": "27.34",
|
"ps": "3.321341769873472674688546657",
|
"reported_pe": "11.53048652524031362908457001",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "3258942976.3560503",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "3258942976.3560503",
|
"ttm_eps": "2.371105498467263594735518198",
|
"ttm_revenue": "11313860686.1381545"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-2168796940.194715",
|
"basis": "2026Q1合营企业收益18.589亿元减2025Q1亏损0.123亿元；该项主要为未实现股权投资收益，不作为持续利润",
|
"description": "剔除2026一季度合营企业未实现投资收益相对上年同期的增量"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "保留作公告前预期对照，但不纳入当前一致预期。",
|
"field": "institutions.ETNet公开一致预期汇总（9份报告）",
|
"issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-STALE",
|
"message": "机构预测已早于最新经营信息或低于已实现累计利润。",
|
"recalc_scope": "机构预期与 Forward PE",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.278333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2767784808227893895573788881",
|
"implied_profit": "3131433172.95",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.822666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2214227846582315116459031105",
|
"implied_profit": "2505146538.36",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.518888888888888888888888889",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1845189872151929263715859254",
|
"implied_profit": "2087622115.30",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.367",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1660670884936736337344273329",
|
"implied_profit": "1878859903.77",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.242727272727272727272727273",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1509700804487942124858430298",
|
"implied_profit": "1708054457.972727272727272727",
|
"pe": "22"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.139166666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1383892404113946947786894440",
|
"implied_profit": "1565716586.475",
|
"pe": "24"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.0936",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1328536707949389069875418663",
|
"implied_profit": "1503087923.016",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9113333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1107113923291157558229515552",
|
"implied_profit": "1252573269.18",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7811428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09489547913924207641967276161",
|
"implied_profit": "1073634230.725714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6835",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08303354424683681686721366643",
|
"implied_profit": "939429951.885",
|
"pe": "40"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "游戏收入与利润率继续承压，AI投入拖累费用率，投资收益回落。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.07650145771629824",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.19473876973209936",
|
"equity_value_high": "25034770514.6036136",
|
"equity_value_low": "12517385257.301808",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观情景",
|
"price_high": "18.21451999949245784271271846",
|
"price_low": "9.107259999746229794439017872",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3337776152343651118246993980",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6668888076171825239780900559"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "WPS保持双位数增长、游戏业务企稳，按中金与公开一致预期的报告利润口径并给予控股公司折价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.02885939372537294",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.03466909689871289",
|
"equity_value_high": "43115438108.4840024",
|
"equity_value_low": "31293463143.254520",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准情景",
|
"price_high": "31.36945111023701160219900710",
|
"price_low": "22.76814999936557448609754468",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.147382995985260117125055124",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.1672220190429563099452251397"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "WPS AI商业化和WPS 365超预期，游戏新品改善，投资收益以外的经常利润同步恢复。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.1636611728232844",
|
"cagr_low": "0.05995336671288709",
|
"equity_value_high": "79972183588.3171020",
|
"equity_value_low": "50069541029.207232",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观情景",
|
"price_high": "58.18527222060090918026116391",
|
"price_low": "36.42903999898491917775607149",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.128210395779111528173414920",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.332444769531269904087639777"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
