{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "112.1556072404757183440193803",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.1912129742607843137254901960"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "146.0893621",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "15500459154.59684463333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "12400367323.67747570666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "10333639436.39789642222222222"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "9300275492.75810678"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "22",
|
"required_profit": "8454795902.50736980"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "7440220394.206485424"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "28",
|
"required_profit": "6643053923.39864770"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "6200183661.838737853333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "32",
|
"required_profit": "5812672182.9738167375"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "5314443138.71891816"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "4650137746.37905339"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总快照不替代逐家研报；覆盖池数量不等于每个年度的有效样本数。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "5.785909090909",
|
"profit": "7366799026.019884"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "7.208523809524",
|
"profit": "9178116238.03091"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "8.620285714286",
|
"profit": "10975615310.616364"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池23家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "5.785909090909",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000003417006478809845062165992777",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "15.67774373477909830841334159",
|
"profit_max": "7366799026.019884",
|
"profit_mean": "7366799026.019884",
|
"profit_median": "7366799026.019884",
|
"profit_min": "7366799026.019884"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "7.208523809524",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000008859508628041212283054465945",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "12.58371372515308924209721019",
|
"profit_max": "9178116238.03091",
|
"profit_mean": "9178116238.03091",
|
"profit_median": "9178116238.03091",
|
"profit_min": "9178116238.03091"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "8.620285714286",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000002001746542514908487082291967",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "10.52285307082925560278691990",
|
"profit_max": "10975615310.616364",
|
"profit_mean": "10975615310.616364",
|
"profit_median": "10975615310.616364",
|
"profit_min": "10975615310.616364"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "605117.SH",
|
"company": "德业股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-07-09",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.257192844332407611854733803",
|
"annual_fcf": "2699300570.02",
|
"book_value_per_share": "9.081777273822282164350257010",
|
"current_fcf": "1572617659.10",
|
"deduct_pe": "32.35621347300657235150942976",
|
"diluted_shares": "1273231036.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "108327441923.060",
|
"market_cap": "115494787275.560",
|
"normalized_eps": "2.803480081984115237982621718",
|
"normalized_pe": "32.35621347300657253280324830",
|
"normalized_profit": "3569477849.18999998",
|
"pb": "9.988133078474246382722735733",
|
"price": "90.71",
|
"ps": "8.181338402664662703783314877",
|
"reported_pe": "31.61538069280868692265571770",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "3653120245.42",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "3569477849.19",
|
"ttm_eps": "2.869173105375040512286098562",
|
"ttm_revenue": "14116857363.82"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-83642396.23000002",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026Q1减2025Q1；最新半年预告/快报仅用于情景利润，不混入TTM法定口径",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "7.559166666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6817782002220552253152762398",
|
"implied_profit": "9624565606.296666666666666667",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.047333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5454225601776441802522209918",
|
"implied_profit": "7699652485.037333333333333333",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.039444444444444444444444444",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4545188001480368168768508265",
|
"implied_profit": "6416377070.864444444444444444",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.5355",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4090669201332331351891657439",
|
"implied_profit": "5774739363.778",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.123181818181818181818181818",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3718790183029392138083324944",
|
"implied_profit": "5249763057.980",
|
"pe": "22"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.6284",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3272535361065865081513325951",
|
"implied_profit": "4619791491.0224",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.239642857142857142857142857",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2921906572380236679922612456",
|
"implied_profit": "4124813831.270",
|
"pe": "28"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.023666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2727112800888220901261104959",
|
"implied_profit": "3849826242.518666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.8346875",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2556668250832707094932285899",
|
"implied_profit": "3609212102.36125",
|
"pe": "32"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.591714285714285714285714286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2337525257904189343938089965",
|
"implied_profit": "3299851065.016",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.26775",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2045334600666165675945828719",
|
"implied_profit": "2887369681.889",
|
"pe": "40"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、订单或毛利率低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.041372583562126364",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.14105318171967884",
|
"equity_value_high": "93500000000.00",
|
"equity_value_low": "54000000000.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "73.43521902650195843953649901",
|
"price_low": "42.41178425060006155866279087",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.1904396535497524149538474368",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5324464309271297369786926373"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "结合2026年最新业绩预告/快报、机构一致预期、订单与现金流，给予与增长持续性和风险相匹配的PE区间。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.08987355691900722",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.013329202811457996",
|
"equity_value_high": "177600000000.00",
|
"equity_value_low": "108000000000.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "139.4876459797513135707131789",
|
"price_low": "84.82356850120012311732558175",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.537731738284106642825633104",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.0648928618542594739573852745"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、海外扩张、产品结构和利润率超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.18511440279909497",
|
"cagr_low": "0.10140918079810435",
|
"equity_value_high": "270000000000.00",
|
"equity_value_low": "187200000000.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "212.0589212530003077933139544",
|
"price_low": "147.0275187354135467366976750",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.337767845364351315106536814",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.620852372785950245140532190"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
