{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "18.80939999999999925283612089",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-1.104798664497538548418850942"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "63.7600909",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "12800422909.08052573"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "10667019090.90043810833333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "8533615272.720350486666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "7111346060.600292072222222222"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "6400211454.540262865"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "5120169163.632210292"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "4266807636.360175243333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "3657263688.308721637142857143"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "3200105727.2701314325"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "2560084581.816105146"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "2133403818.180087621666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "1706723054.544070097333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "1280042290.908052573"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.47",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "943568097.5899999"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.666666666667",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1338394464.667336"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.975",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "1957401904.575"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池6家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.47",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001059806920723723899657975583",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "84.23404255319149828888425350",
|
"profit_max": "943568097.5899999",
|
"profit_mean": "943568097.5899999",
|
"profit_median": "943568097.5899999",
|
"profit_min": "943568097.5899999"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.666666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001016897511107299142659707997",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "59.38499999997030146115414514",
|
"profit_max": "1338394464.667336",
|
"profit_mean": "1338394464.667336",
|
"profit_median": "1338394464.667336",
|
"profit_min": "1338394464.667336"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.975",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "40.60512820512820512820512821",
|
"profit_max": "1957401904.575",
|
"profit_mean": "1957401904.575",
|
"profit_median": "1957401904.575",
|
"profit_min": "1957401904.575"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "688249.SH",
|
"company": "晶合集成",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-24",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "5.457108257054588168796944909",
|
"annual_fcf": "-5864757886.81",
|
"book_value_per_share": "10.91904327743391738086073585",
|
"current_fcf": "-462837096.66",
|
"deduct_pe": "672.3961161794036953741199012",
|
"diluted_shares": "2007591697.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "104402387212.120",
|
"market_cap": "79480555284.230",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.05887898375284030675088013178",
|
"normalized_pe": "672.3961161794031265349422730",
|
"normalized_profit": "118204958.9100001",
|
"pb": "3.625775536746845790114536238",
|
"price": "39.59",
|
"ps": "7.077683371814529960907866001",
|
"reported_pe": "128.3205089620383387550168409",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "619390898.05",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "118204958.91",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3085243373817360433125959476",
|
"ttm_revenue": "11229741584.76"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-501185939.1399999",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.959",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7077683371814529960907866001",
|
"implied_profit": "7948055528.423",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.299166666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5898069476512108300756555002",
|
"implied_profit": "6623379607.019166666666666667",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.639333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4718455581209686640605244001",
|
"implied_profit": "5298703685.615333333333333333",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.199444444444444444444444444",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3932046317674738867171036667",
|
"implied_profit": "4415586404.679444444444444444",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.9795",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3538841685907264980453933001",
|
"implied_profit": "3974027764.2115",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.5836",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2831073348725811984363146401",
|
"implied_profit": "3179222211.3692",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.319666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2359227790604843320302622001",
|
"implied_profit": "2649351842.807666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.131142857142857142857142857",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2022195249089865703116533143",
|
"implied_profit": "2270873008.120857142857142857",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.98975",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1769420842953632490226966500",
|
"implied_profit": "1987013882.10575",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7918",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1415536674362905992181573200",
|
"implied_profit": "1589611105.6846",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6598333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1179613895302421660151311000",
|
"implied_profit": "1324675921.403833333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5278666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09436911162419373281210488005",
|
"implied_profit": "1059740737.123066666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3959",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07077683371814529960907866001",
|
"implied_profit": "794805552.8423",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2455296498596783",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3513570102155993",
|
"equity_value_high": "19429954265.5732770",
|
"equity_value_low": "9126190639.89047880",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "9.678239999999998505672241780",
|
"price_low": "4.545839999999999402268896712",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7555382672392018563861520136",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8851770649153826874900506009"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与6家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.07630813205139697",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.22599165562671342",
|
"equity_value_high": "53443697047.4976",
|
"equity_value_low": "22079493483.6059970",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "26.6208",
|
"price_low": "10.99799999999999850567224178",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3275877746905784288961859055",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7222025764081839225644798742"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.056225072578775404",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.05853179613656323",
|
"equity_value_high": "104482427727.8577944",
|
"equity_value_low": "58788066752.24736",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "52.04366399999999322571416273",
|
"price_low": "29.28288",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.314565900479919000396922524",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.2603465521596362717858044961"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
