{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "402.4155000000126891440671207",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-1.747160584023143096832934653"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "1780.418805",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "10",
|
"required_profit": "111862461705.6882045"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "12",
|
"required_profit": "93218718088.07350375"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "15",
|
"required_profit": "74574974470.4588030"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "18",
|
"required_profit": "62145812058.71566916666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "55931230852.84410225"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "44744984682.2752818"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "37287487235.2294015"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "31960703344.48234414285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "27965615426.422051125"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "22372492341.1376409"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "18643743617.61470075"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "14914994894.0917606"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "11186246170.56882045"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "10.520666666667",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "6610060895.859542"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "21.266666666667",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "13361697140.733543"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "34.774666666667",
|
"mark": "E",
|
"profit": "21848678565.985546"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池15家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260813",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "10.520666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001156302509223118046421165787",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "105.0788923388852197134335054",
|
"profit_max": "6610060895.859542",
|
"profit_mean": "6610060895.859542",
|
"profit_median": "6610060895.859542",
|
"profit_min": "6610060895.859542"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "21.266666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000001763825339833002551406645624",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "51.98275862068883947874783567",
|
"profit_max": "13361697140.733543",
|
"profit_mean": "13361697140.733543",
|
"profit_median": "13361697140.733543",
|
"profit_min": "13361697140.733543"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "34.774666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001480948603014081507592259460",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "31.79038380430167285053862494",
|
"profit_max": "21848678565.985546",
|
"profit_mean": "21848678565.985546",
|
"profit_median": "21848678565.985546",
|
"profit_min": "21848678565.985546"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-13",
|
"code": "688256.SH",
|
"company": "寒武纪",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-08",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-06-30"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-0.2420314829804669822437586682",
|
"annual_fcf": "-1067096025.64",
|
"book_value_per_share": "21.57499378991140675967042375",
|
"current_fcf": "-128513870.50",
|
"deduct_pe": "229.7702775591952428655734874",
|
"diluted_shares": "628292969.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "689809966682.95",
|
"market_cap": "694577877229.50",
|
"normalized_eps": "4.811327260181388087441736118",
|
"normalized_pe": "229.7702775591952580674341226",
|
"normalized_profit": "3022923089.1299998",
|
"pb": "51.23987569891854446843165948",
|
"price": "1105.5",
|
"ps": "72.26058544599027656859429177",
|
"reported_pe": "208.4531141766468206951081981",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "3332058050.43",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "3022923089.13",
|
"ttm_eps": "5.303350848782138766859254795",
|
"ttm_revenue": "9612126347.20"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-309134961.3000002",
|
"basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "110.55",
|
"implied_margin": "7.226058544599027656859429177",
|
"implied_profit": "69457787722.95",
|
"pe": "10"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "92.125",
|
"implied_margin": "6.021715453832523047382857648",
|
"implied_profit": "57881489769.125",
|
"pe": "12"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "73.7",
|
"implied_margin": "4.817372363066018437906286118",
|
"implied_profit": "46305191815.30",
|
"pe": "15"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "61.41666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "4.014476969221682031588571765",
|
"implied_profit": "38587659846.08333333333333333",
|
"pe": "18"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "55.275",
|
"implied_margin": "3.613029272299513828429714589",
|
"implied_profit": "34728893861.475",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "44.22",
|
"implied_margin": "2.890423417839611062743771671",
|
"implied_profit": "27783115089.18",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "36.85",
|
"implied_margin": "2.408686181533009218953143059",
|
"implied_profit": "23152595907.65",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "31.58571428571428571428571429",
|
"implied_margin": "2.064588155599722187674122622",
|
"implied_profit": "19845082206.55714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "27.6375",
|
"implied_margin": "1.806514636149756914214857294",
|
"implied_profit": "17364446930.7375",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "22.11",
|
"implied_margin": "1.445211708919805531371885835",
|
"implied_profit": "13891557544.59",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "18.425",
|
"implied_margin": "1.204343090766504609476571530",
|
"implied_profit": "11576297953.825",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "14.74",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9634744726132036875812572236",
|
"implied_profit": "9261038363.06",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "11.055",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7226058544599027656859429177",
|
"implied_profit": "6945778772.295",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2781672062813524",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3794165915797635",
|
"equity_value_high": "136114373967.53970",
|
"equity_value_low": "63932508984.7534940",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "216.6415680000068566738966643",
|
"price_low": "101.7558880000032182438762895",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8040329552238743946866606384",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9079548729081834299015139851"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与15家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.12759969851917152",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2594744041610082",
|
"equity_value_high": "350994233570.141655",
|
"equity_value_low": "154675424963.113290",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "558.6474000000175952947835709",
|
"price_low": "246.1836000000077829933506705",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4946654002713545044823305555",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7773101763907663654515145450"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.0014558154524901834",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.11081046246606341",
|
"equity_value_high": "699648505583.149005",
|
"equity_value_low": "386093656927.1558475",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "1113.570484000035029836534746",
|
"price_low": "614.5121400000193977978448458",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.007300302125766648427439843",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.4441319402984899160580327039"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
