{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "253.1762499998107878345962569",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-1.387664719737541634382686613"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "973.553295",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "14149574133.0226140"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "11319659306.4180912"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "9433049422.0150760"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "8085470933.155779428571428571"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "7074787066.5113070"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "5659829653.2090456"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "4716524711.0075380"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "3773219768.8060304"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "2829914826.6045228"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "6.046",
|
"profit": "1757445137.2640002"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "8.704",
|
"profit": "2530069876.736"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "11.57375",
|
"profit": "3364245891.07"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池10家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "6.046",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001138015610042661406474172844",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "99.98346013893482156912940339",
|
"profit_max": "1757445137.2640002",
|
"profit_mean": "1757445137.2640002",
|
"profit_median": "1757445137.2640002",
|
"profit_min": "1757445137.2640002"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "8.704",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "69.45082720588235294117647059",
|
"profit_max": "2530069876.736",
|
"profit_mean": "2530069876.736",
|
"profit_median": "2530069876.736",
|
"profit_min": "2530069876.736"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "11.57375",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "52.23026244734852575872124419",
|
"profit_max": "3364245891.07",
|
"profit_mean": "3364245891.07",
|
"profit_median": "3364245891.07",
|
"profit_min": "3364245891.07"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "688072.SH",
|
"company": "拓荆科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "3.920569318208037057793082467",
|
"annual_fcf": "3057773772.3",
|
"book_value_per_share": "24.93203509394404653622980876",
|
"current_fcf": "-657623626.4",
|
"deduct_pe": "174.7530501414189246867698929",
|
"diluted_shares": "290678984.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "173559479591.69",
|
"market_cap": "175715445828.00",
|
"normalized_eps": "3.459167090421645343304213558",
|
"normalized_pe": "174.7530501414189246867698929",
|
"normalized_profit": "1005507175.33",
|
"pb": "24.24591485300901618080736132",
|
"price": "604.5",
|
"ps": "25.38204738843995028932193537",
|
"reported_pe": "106.8660900555783377603329030",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "1644258208.91",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "1005507175.33",
|
"ttm_eps": "5.656611930740751453844354981",
|
"ttm_revenue": "6922823960.53"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-638751033.58",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "30.225",
|
"implied_margin": "1.269102369421997514466096769",
|
"implied_profit": "8785772291.40",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "24.18",
|
"implied_margin": "1.015281895537598011572877415",
|
"implied_profit": "7028617833.12",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "20.15",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8460682462813316763107311791",
|
"implied_profit": "5857181527.60",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "17.27142857142857142857142857",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7252013539554271511234838678",
|
"implied_profit": "5020441309.371428571428571429",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "15.1125",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6345511847109987572330483843",
|
"implied_profit": "4392886145.70",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "12.09",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5076409477687990057864387074",
|
"implied_profit": "3514308916.56",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "10.075",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4230341231406658381553655895",
|
"implied_profit": "2928590763.80",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "8.06",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3384272985125326705242924716",
|
"implied_profit": "2342872611.04",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.045",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2538204738843995028932193537",
|
"implied_profit": "1757154458.28",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.25916069742886194",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3539816234996268",
|
"equity_value_high": "39212994625.35",
|
"equity_value_low": "19771257794.25",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "134.9013750005057125148063680",
|
"price_low": "68.01750000010320663567476897",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7768380893291882340532566286",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8874813895779930411320516642"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与10家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.1047425649855721",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.23468499367095608",
|
"equity_value_high": "101053095392.50",
|
"equity_value_low": "46132934853.25",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "347.6449999993807601859513862",
|
"price_low": "158.7075000002408154832411276",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4249048800671947722316767805",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7374565756819837626414538832"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.02423391123310803",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.08751344622025081",
|
"equity_value_high": "198064066970.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "111158404932.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "681.3842000011944447968759929",
|
"price_low": "382.4095000001788915018362662",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.127186435072281959961746887",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.3673953680724914946206182528"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
