{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "37.18799544725783799590501222",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-1.488975242864970645792563601"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "152.48767265546425000",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1047666051.77004736659297500"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "785749538.82753552494473125"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "628599631.06202841995578500"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "523833025.88502368329648750"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "80",
|
"required_profit": "392874769.413767762472365625"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.105",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "星载优势板块持续批量交付，机载、地面和低轨卫星通信带来增量。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.84",
|
"profit": "173000000"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.18",
|
"profit": "243000000"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.59",
|
"profit": "327000000"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "光大证券",
|
"report_date": "2026-06-02",
|
"source_id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
},
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "下游需求恢复和低轨卫星批量化组网推动产品规模化交付。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.84",
|
"profit": "172000000"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.17",
|
"profit": "241000000"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.61",
|
"profit": "332000000"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": false,
|
"institution": "方正证券",
|
"report_date": "2026-04-18",
|
"source_id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL",
|
"statuses": [
|
"STALE_BEFORE_LATEST_DISCLOSURE"
|
]
|
},
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "低轨卫星组网加速，星载项目进入常态化批量交付。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.81",
|
"profit": "167000000"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.17",
|
"profit": "241000000"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": false,
|
"institution": "华创证券",
|
"report_date": "2026-02-09",
|
"source_id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL",
|
"statuses": [
|
"STALE_BEFORE_LATEST_DISCLOSURE"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.84",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0007891146820809248554913294798",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "110.2774291130635838150289017",
|
"profit_max": "173000000",
|
"profit_mean": "173000000",
|
"profit_median": "173000000",
|
"profit_min": "173000000"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.18",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0008871735802469135802469135802",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "78.51026846320987654320987654",
|
"profit_max": "243000000",
|
"profit_mean": "243000000",
|
"profit_median": "243000000",
|
"profit_min": "243000000"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.59",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.002210069082568807339449541284",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "58.34249307816513761467889908",
|
"profit_max": "327000000",
|
"profit_mean": "327000000",
|
"profit_median": "327000000",
|
"profit_min": "327000000"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-01",
|
"code": "001270.SZ",
|
"company": "铖昌科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-05-19",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-0.4044376904436616451995244149",
|
"annual_fcf": "-60898003.46",
|
"book_value_per_share": "7.570384953730249711543174649",
|
"current_fcf": "-26047996.36",
|
"deduct_pe": "161.4386157786110808663495963",
|
"diluted_shares": "206114901",
|
"enterprise_value": "18803942677.87",
|
"market_cap": "19077995236.56",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.5733448565176760315839561740",
|
"normalized_pe": "161.4386157786110808663495963",
|
"normalized_profit": "118174918.34",
|
"pb": "12.22659092842983667773303996",
|
"price": "92.56",
|
"ps": "45.80421585662767464686795987",
|
"reported_pe": "144.5104364223639823936866417",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "132018113.77",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "118174918.34",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.6405073729725149760036029612",
|
"ttm_revenue": "416511774.73"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-13843195.43",
|
"description": "剔除TTM非经常性损益，以扣非归母净利润作为归一化利润。",
|
"name": "以TTM扣非归母净利润替代TTM报告归母净利润",
|
"reason": "剔除政府补助、理财收益、单项减值转回等非经常性损益；股份支付作为真实成本保留。",
|
"source_id": "SRC-ANNUAL-2025"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "保留作公告前预期对照，但不纳入当前一致预期。",
|
"field": "institutions.方正证券",
|
"issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-STALE",
|
"message": "机构预测已早于最新经营信息或低于已实现累计利润。",
|
"recalc_scope": "机构预期与 Forward PE",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "保留作公告前预期对照，但不纳入当前一致预期。",
|
"field": "institutions.华创证券",
|
"issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-STALE",
|
"message": "机构预测已早于最新经营信息或低于已实现累计利润。",
|
"recalc_scope": "机构预期与 Forward PE",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 3
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.085333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "1.526807195220922488228931996",
|
"implied_profit": "635933174.552",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.314",
|
"implied_margin": "1.145105396415691866171698997",
|
"implied_profit": "476949880.914",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.8512",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9160843171325534929373591973",
|
"implied_profit": "381559904.7312",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.542666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7634035976104612441144659978",
|
"implied_profit": "317966587.276",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.157",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5725526982078459330858494983",
|
"implied_profit": "238474940.457",
|
"pe": "80"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9256",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4580421585662767464686795987",
|
"implied_profit": "190779952.3656",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "2026年交付增速低于市场预期，利润为1.20亿至1.50亿元；客户集中、回款弱使估值回落至30至40倍。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.20654243917038018",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2836026792737728",
|
"equity_value_high": "6000000000",
|
"equity_value_low": "3600000000",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "29.10997686673803365628572385",
|
"price_low": "17.46598612004282019377143431",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6855015463835562483115198374",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8113009278301337489869119024"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "2026年利润落在机构预测区间1.67亿至1.73亿元；高增长与稀缺性获得40至50倍前瞻PE，但对回款和集中度留折价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.1463169190168293",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1893213319197098",
|
"equity_value_high": "8650000000",
|
"equity_value_low": "6680000000",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "41.96688331621399852114525189",
|
"price_low": "32.40910757830167747066477256",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.5465980627029602579824410989",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6498583883070259564534920856"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "2026年利润显著超出一致预期至2.00亿至2.30亿元，交付、毛利和回款同步改善，并维持50至60倍高估值。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.06272017249017714",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.12119311082923034",
|
"equity_value_high": "13800000000",
|
"equity_value_low": "10000000000",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "66.95294679349747740945716487",
|
"price_low": "48.51662811123005609380953976",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2766535566821793711164956259",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.4758359106392604138525330622"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
