{
|
"snapshot_id": "SNAPSHOT-001270-20260801-V1",
|
"meta": {
|
"company": "铖昌科技",
|
"code": "001270.SZ",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-01",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-05-19"
|
},
|
"market": {
|
"price": 92.56,
|
"price_type": "收盘价",
|
"price_timestamp": "2026-07-31T15:00:00+08:00",
|
"diluted_shares": 206114901,
|
"shares_date": "2026-07-31",
|
"platform_market_cap": 19077995236.56
|
},
|
"financials": {
|
"annual": {
|
"period_end": "2025-12-31",
|
"basis": "audited",
|
"revenue": 404622960.22,
|
"attributable_profit": 117109847.25,
|
"deduct_profit": 103336666.71,
|
"cfo": -47363636.15,
|
"capex": 13534367.31
|
},
|
"current_cumulative": {
|
"period_end": "2026-03-31",
|
"basis": "quarterly_report_unaudited",
|
"revenue": 103897665.11,
|
"attributable_profit": 44724149.72,
|
"deduct_profit": 43664243.73,
|
"cfo": -20955753.64,
|
"capex": 5092242.72
|
},
|
"prior_year_same_period": {
|
"period_end": "2025-03-31",
|
"basis": "reported_comparative",
|
"revenue": 92008850.60,
|
"attributable_profit": 29815883.20,
|
"deduct_profit": 28825992.10,
|
"cfo": -87522482.55,
|
"capex": 2365311.89
|
}
|
},
|
"balance_sheet": {
|
"period_end": "2026-03-31",
|
"equity": 1560369145.27,
|
"cash_available": 179539263.25,
|
"non_operating_financial_assets": 95338761.64,
|
"interest_bearing_debt": 825466.20,
|
"minority_interest": 0
|
},
|
"normalization": {
|
"adjustments": [
|
{
|
"name": "以TTM扣非归母净利润替代TTM报告归母净利润",
|
"description": "剔除TTM非经常性损益，以扣非归母净利润作为归一化利润。",
|
"amount": -13843195.43,
|
"reason": "剔除政府补助、理财收益、单项减值转回等非经常性损益；股份支付作为真实成本保留。",
|
"source_id": "SRC-ANNUAL-2025"
|
}
|
]
|
},
|
"valuation": {
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"profit_low": 120000000,
|
"profit_high": 150000000,
|
"multiple_low": 30,
|
"multiple_high": 40,
|
"assumption": "2026年交付增速低于市场预期，利润为1.20亿至1.50亿元；客户集中、回款弱使估值回落至30至40倍。"
|
},
|
{
|
"name": "基准",
|
"role": "base",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"profit_low": 167000000,
|
"profit_high": 173000000,
|
"multiple_low": 40,
|
"multiple_high": 50,
|
"assumption": "2026年利润落在机构预测区间1.67亿至1.73亿元；高增长与稀缺性获得40至50倍前瞻PE，但对回款和集中度留折价。"
|
},
|
{
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"profit_low": 200000000,
|
"profit_high": 230000000,
|
"multiple_low": 50,
|
"multiple_high": 60,
|
"assumption": "2026年利润显著超出一致预期至2.00亿至2.30亿元，交付、毛利和回款同步改善，并维持50至60倍高估值。"
|
}
|
],
|
"reverse_pe_multiples": [30, 40, 50, 60, 80, 100],
|
"exit_pe_multiples": [30, 40, 50, 60, 80],
|
"holding_period": {
|
"years": 5,
|
"required_return": 0.105,
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": 0
|
}
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"forecasts": [
|
{
|
"institution": "光大证券",
|
"report_date": "2026-06-02",
|
"include": true,
|
"core_assumption": "星载优势板块持续批量交付，机载、地面和低轨卫星通信带来增量。",
|
"source_id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {"profit": 173000000, "eps": 0.84},
|
"2027": {"profit": 243000000, "eps": 1.18},
|
"2028": {"profit": 327000000, "eps": 1.59}
|
}
|
},
|
{
|
"institution": "方正证券",
|
"report_date": "2026-04-18",
|
"include": true,
|
"core_assumption": "下游需求恢复和低轨卫星批量化组网推动产品规模化交付。",
|
"source_id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {"profit": 172000000, "eps": 0.84},
|
"2027": {"profit": 241000000, "eps": 1.17},
|
"2028": {"profit": 332000000, "eps": 1.61}
|
}
|
},
|
{
|
"institution": "华创证券",
|
"report_date": "2026-02-09",
|
"include": true,
|
"core_assumption": "低轨卫星组网加速，星载项目进入常态化批量交付。",
|
"source_id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {"profit": 167000000, "eps": 0.81},
|
"2027": {"profit": 241000000, "eps": 1.17}
|
}
|
}
|
]
|
},
|
"sources": [
|
{
|
"id": "SRC-ANNUAL-2025",
|
"source_type": "szse",
|
"title": "铖昌科技2025年年度报告摘要及经审计主要数据",
|
"publish_date": "2026-04-17",
|
"period_end": "2025-12-31",
|
"url": "https://disc.static.szse.cn/download/disc/disk03/finalpage/2026-04-17/4f97c490-eb69-4161-b773-88ffa70e8b99.PDF",
|
"supports": ["financials.annual", "financials.prior_year_same_period"],
|
"revision_status": "current"
|
},
|
{
|
"id": "SRC-Q1-2026",
|
"source_type": "szse",
|
"title": "铖昌科技2026年第一季度报告",
|
"publish_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"period_end": "2026-03-31",
|
"url": "https://disc.static.szse.cn/disc/disk03/finalpage/2026-04-28/016a693e-7238-44a9-91ef-effcac4bdd4d.PDF",
|
"supports": ["financials.current_cumulative", "market.diluted_shares", "balance_sheet.equity"],
|
"revision_status": "current"
|
},
|
{
|
"id": "SRC-QUOTE-20260731",
|
"source_type": "quote_provider",
|
"title": "东方财富历史行情与总市值接口",
|
"publish_date": "2026-07-31",
|
"period_end": "2026-07-31",
|
"url": "https://push2his.eastmoney.com/api/qt/stock/kline/get?secid=0.001270",
|
"supports": ["market.price", "market.platform_market_cap"],
|
"revision_status": "current"
|
},
|
{
|
"id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-DETAIL",
|
"source_type": "institution_aggregator",
|
"title": "东方财富盈利预测明细",
|
"publish_date": "2026-08-01",
|
"period_end": "2026-08-01",
|
"url": "https://emweb.eastmoney.com/PC_HSF10/ProfitForecast/Index?code=SZ001270&type=web",
|
"supports": ["institutions"],
|
"revision_status": "current"
|
},
|
{
|
"id": "SRC-INSTITUTION-CONSENSUS",
|
"source_type": "institution_aggregator",
|
"title": "同花顺机构盈利预测汇总",
|
"publish_date": "2026-08-01",
|
"period_end": "2026-08-01",
|
"url": "https://basic.10jqka.com.cn/001270/worth.html",
|
"supports": ["institutions"],
|
"revision_status": "current"
|
},
|
{
|
"id": "SRC-INQUIRY-REPLY-2025",
|
"source_type": "financial_mirror",
|
"title": "铖昌科技关于2025年度年报问询函的回复及会计师专项说明",
|
"publish_date": "2026-05-19",
|
"period_end": "2025-12-31",
|
"url": "https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?CompanyCode=80961980&gather=1&id=12331788",
|
"supports": ["cashflow_quality", "revenue_recognition", "receivables"],
|
"revision_status": "current"
|
},
|
{
|
"id": "SRC-CORPORATE-ACTION-202605",
|
"source_type": "cninfo",
|
"title": "撤销退市风险警示暨停复牌公告",
|
"publish_date": "2026-05-19",
|
"period_end": null,
|
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-05-19/1225314875.PDF",
|
"supports": ["corporate_action"],
|
"revision_status": "current"
|
}
|
],
|
"analysis": {
|
"company_type": "高研发、项目制、客户高度集中、军工电子与卫星通信芯片设计企业",
|
"primary_model": "2026年前瞻正常化PE情景",
|
"cross_checks": ["PB/ROE", "PS", "反向PE", "反向DCF", "五年持有期回报压力测试"],
|
"profit_sources": [
|
"T/R芯片销售占2025年收入99.78%，是绝对利润来源。",
|
"星载、机载、地面相控阵雷达及低轨卫星通信是公开披露的应用方向，但公司未按应用领域披露收入和利润拆分。",
|
"2025年利润改善主要来自销量增加、规模效应和产品结构改善；技术服务收入占比已降至0.22%。"
|
],
|
"profit_source_quality": [
|
"前五大客户收入占94.36%，单一项目交付节奏可能显著改变季度利润。",
|
"研发费用占收入36.08%且全部费用化，技术投入真实但利润对交付规模敏感。",
|
"TTM扣非利润低于报告利润，归一化采用扣非口径而非加回股份支付。"
|
],
|
"cashflow_notes": [
|
"2023至2025年经营现金流连续为负；2025年为-0.47亿元。",
|
"TTM经营现金流转为约0.19亿元、简化FCF约0.03亿元，虽改善但仅为TTM归母利润的一小部分。",
|
"2026年一季度应收账款与应收票据合计7.52亿元，约为TTM收入的1.81倍，回款仍是估值核心约束。"
|
],
|
"risks": [
|
"交付、验收和客户计划变化导致收入利润跨期波动。",
|
"客户与供应商集中度高，单一客户或晶圆供应变化影响大。",
|
"利润增速快于现金回款时，应收减值和流动性风险上升。",
|
"当前估值对远期增长兑现要求极高，预期回落会产生显著估值压缩。"
|
],
|
"upgrade_triggers": [
|
"半年报或三季报收入、扣非利润和经营现金流同步高增。",
|
"应收账款及票据增速连续低于收入增速，现金转换率明显改善。",
|
"新增公开可验证订单转化为收入且没有以信用政策放宽换取增长。",
|
"最新财报后有三家以上机构独立更新并上调可勾稽的利润预测。"
|
],
|
"downgrade_triggers": [
|
"2026年利润低于1.5亿元或毛利率明显回落。",
|
"经营现金流再次大额为负，应收和票据继续快于收入增长。",
|
"主要项目延期、客户集中风险暴露或存货减值增加。",
|
"新增激励、融资或并购产生明显摊薄或资本占用。"
|
],
|
"executive_conclusion": "以2026年7月31日92.56元计，当前价格高于本报告乐观情景上限，属于明显偏贵；合理性需要2026年利润显著超过机构一致预期，并且现金流同步改善。"
|
}
|
}
|
