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| {
| "snapshot_id": "SNAPSHOT-002407-20260825-INDUSTRY-GAP-V1",
| "meta": {
| "company": "多氟多",
| "code": "002407.SZ",
| "market": "深圳证券交易所",
| "as_of_date": "2026-08-25",
| "currency": "CNY",
| "report_period_end": "2026-06-30",
| "latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-18"
| },
| "market": {
| "price": 33.88,
| "price_type": "最近完整交易日前复权收盘价",
| "price_timestamp": "2026-08-25T15:00:00+08:00",
| "diluted_shares": 1190432569.0,
| "shares_date": "2026-06-30",
| "platform_market_cap": 40331855437.72
| },
| "financials": {
| "annual": {
| "attributable_profit": 212784849.4,
| "basis": "audited",
| "capex": 1056712029.23,
| "cfo": 199089470.35,
| "deduct_profit": 98730895.44,
| "period_end": "2025-12-31",
| "revenue": 9434247610.47
| },
| "current_cumulative": {
| "attributable_profit": 511861621.91,
| "basis": "quarterly_report_unaudited",
| "capex": 484766763.24,
| "cfo": 336369876.83,
| "deduct_profit": 495716478.08,
| "period_end": "2026-06-30",
| "revenue": 7035840642.72
| },
| "prior_year_same_period": {
| "attributable_profit": 51330191.7,
| "basis": "reported_comparative",
| "capex": 582113529.35,
| "cfo": 26140917.89,
| "deduct_profit": -4809258.2,
| "period_end": "2025-06-30",
| "revenue": 4328434872.74
| }
| },
| "balance_sheet": {
| "cash_available": 6336160836.08,
| "equity": 8682179790.33,
| "interest_bearing_debt": 9545488917.42,
| "minority_interest": 2617980173.69,
| "non_operating_financial_assets": 592881.12,
| "period_end": "2026-06-30"
| },
| "normalization": {
| "adjustments": [
| {
| "description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理",
| "amount": -74059647.88999999,
| "basis": "2025年报+2026最新累计期-2025同期"
| }
| ]
| },
| "valuation": {
| "scenarios": [
| {
| "name": "悲观",
| "role": "pessimistic",
| "method": "pe",
| "profit_low": 1125480187.170222,
| "profit_high": 1597455749.531928,
| "multiple_low": 20,
| "multiple_high": 30,
| "assumption": "需求、价格、订单或验收低于预期，利润下修且估值回归行业低位。"
| },
| {
| "name": "基准",
| "role": "base",
| "method": "pe",
| "profit_low": 1815290624.4681,
| "profit_high": 2746208893.4261,
| "multiple_low": 30,
| "multiple_high": 45,
| "assumption": "以TTM扣非利润与2家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按业务质量和周期属性定价。"
| },
| {
| "name": "乐观",
| "role": "optimistic",
| "method": "pe",
| "profit_low": 3020829782.76871,
| "profit_high": 3789768272.9280176,
| "multiple_low": 45,
| "multiple_high": 65,
| "assumption": "订单、产品结构、良率或规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。"
| }
| ],
| "reverse_pe_multiples": [
| 10,
| 12,
| 15,
| 18,
| 20,
| 25,
| 30,
| 35,
| 40,
| 50,
| 60,
| 75,
| 100
| ],
| "exit_pe_multiples": [
| 10,
| 12,
| 15,
| 18,
| 20,
| 25,
| 30,
| 35,
| 40,
| 50,
| 60,
| 75,
| 100
| ],
| "holding_period": {
| "years": 5,
| "required_return": 0.1,
| "cumulative_dividend_per_share": 0
| }
| },
| "institutions": {
| "coverage_status": "available",
| "forecasts": [
| {
| "institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池2家）",
| "report_date": "2026-08-25",
| "include": true,
| "core_assumption": "C1汇总快照缺逐家报告日期；仅作市场预期锚，不替代法定利润。",
| "source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260825",
| "estimates": {
| "2026": {
| "eps": 1.955,
| "profit": 2327295672.395,
| "mark": "E"
| },
| "2027": {
| "eps": 2.39,
| "profit": 2845133839.9100003,
| "mark": "E"
| },
| "2028": {
| "eps": 3.095,
| "profit": 3684388801.0550003,
| "mark": "E"
| }
| }
| }
| ]
| },
| "sources": [
| {
| "id": "SRC-ANNUAL-2025",
| "source_type": "cninfo",
| "title": "2025年年度报告",
| "publish_date": "2026-04-16",
| "period_end": "2025-12-31",
| "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-16/1225107815.pdf",
| "supports": [
| "financials.annual",
| "business",
| "profit_sources"
| ],
| "revision_status": "current"
| },
| {
| "id": "SRC-CURRENT-2026",
| "source_type": "cninfo",
| "title": "2026年半年度报告",
| "publish_date": "2026-08-18",
| "period_end": "2026-06-30",
| "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-18/1225478600.PDF",
| "supports": [
| "financials.current_cumulative",
| "financials.prior_year_same_period",
| "balance_sheet",
| "balance_sheet.equity"
| ],
| "revision_status": "current"
| },
| {
| "id": "SRC-EM-FINANCE-20260825",
| "source_type": "financial_mirror",
| "title": "东方财富结构化财务字段与法定报告勾稽",
| "publish_date": "2026-08-18",
| "period_end": "2026-06-30",
| "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get",
| "supports": [
| "financials",
| "balance_sheet"
| ],
| "revision_status": "current"
| },
| {
| "id": "SRC-LOCAL-FRONT-KLINE",
| "source_type": "quote_provider",
| "title": "trading_xuntou前复权日K完整收盘价",
| "publish_date": "2026-08-25",
| "period_end": "2026-08-25",
| "url": "mysql://trading_xuntou/cn_stock_kline_1d_front",
| "supports": [
| "market.price",
| "market.price_timestamp",
| "market.amount",
| "analysis.kline"
| ],
| "revision_status": "current"
| },
| {
| "id": "SRC-SHARES-REPORT",
| "source_type": "cninfo",
| "title": "2026年半年度报告股本",
| "publish_date": "2026-08-18",
| "period_end": "2026-06-30",
| "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-18/1225478600.PDF",
| "supports": [
| "market.diluted_shares",
| "market.shares_date"
| ],
| "revision_status": "current"
| },
| {
| "id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260825",
| "source_type": "institution_aggregator",
| "title": "东方财富盈利预测汇总",
| "publish_date": "2026-08-25",
| "period_end": "2026-08-25",
| "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get?reportName=RPT_WEB_RESPREDICT",
| "supports": [
| "institutions"
| ],
| "revision_status": "current"
| }
| ],
| "analysis": {
| "company_type": "集成电路设计与芯片产品",
| "primary_model": "前瞻PE情景；亏损或强周期时改用PB，TTM扣非、现金流和反向估值交叉验证",
| "cross_checks": [
| "PB/ROE",
| "机构一致预期",
| "经营现金流与资本开支",
| "反向利润",
| "前复权量价"
| ],
| "profit_sources": [
| "核心利润来自集成电路设计与芯片产品；主要驱动为新品放量、客户导入、产品结构、研发效率和行业景气。",
| "利润还受客户验收、研发、折旧、补助、库存和产品结构影响，不能只按收入线性外推。"
| ],
| "profit_source_quality": [
| "TTM归母6.73亿元，TTM扣非5.99亿元；主模型使用扣非口径。",
| "TTM经营现金流5.09亿元，简化自由现金流-4.50亿元。"
| ],
| "risks": [
| "产品迭代、客户集中、行业周期与高估值",
| "机构汇总不是法定事实，且缺逐家报告日期。",
| "当前行业主题交易可能令估值倍数先于利润变化。"
| ],
| "upgrade_triggers": [
| "最新累计扣非利润达到或超过基准路径且经营现金流同步改善。",
| "订单、客户认证或产能利用率提升转化为可持续利润。"
| ],
| "downgrade_triggers": [
| "最新累计扣非利润低于基准下限，或现金流与利润明显背离。",
| "股本摊薄、存货应收恶化、客户流失或估值中枢明显下移。"
| ],
| "executive_conclusion": "33.88元相对基准合理区间45.75至103.81元，判断为偏低；区间为条件化估值，不是目标价承诺。",
| "consensus_org_count": 2,
| "consensus_coverage_note": "公开C1汇总缺逐家日期；只作市场预期锚",
| "industry_research_membership": [
| "半导体"
| ],
| "research_layers": [
| "reverse:半导体制造、设备、零部件和材料",
| "timeline"
| ],
| "research_name": "多氟多",
| "kline_return_20d": -0.009356725146198785,
| "kline_return_60d": 0.005341246290801127,
| "ma60": 37.521166666666666,
| "distance_to_ma60": -0.09704300239420405,
| "amount_ratio_5d_to_60d": 0.752421042372352,
| "market_sample_count": 123,
| "ttm_cfo": 509318429.28999996,
| "ttm_capex": 959365263.12,
| "ttm_fcf": -450046833.83000004,
| "total_equity_original": 11300159964.02,
| "attributable_equity_used": 8682179790.33,
| "minority_interest_original": 2617980173.69,
| "report_shares": 1190432569.0,
| "share_proof_status": "MATCH_REPORT",
| "information_cutoff": "2026-08-25T23:59:00+08:00"
| }
| }
|
|
