{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "74.25",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-1.320808080808080808080808081"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "277.5230832",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "11487358097.26486608"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "9189886477.811892864"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "7658238731.50991072"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "6564204627.008494902857142857"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "5743679048.63243304"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "4594943238.905946432"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "3829119365.75495536"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "3063295492.603964288"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "2297471619.452973216"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "2.0",
|
"profit": "1655697676.0"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "3.365",
|
"profit": "2785711339.8700004"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "4.694",
|
"profit": "3885922445.572"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池7家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.0",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "86.16",
|
"profit_max": "1655697676.0",
|
"profit_mean": "1655697676.0",
|
"profit_median": "1655697676.0",
|
"profit_min": "1655697676.0"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.365",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001435898954335543714196905609",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "51.20950965824664940760452270",
|
"profit_max": "2785711339.8700004",
|
"profit_mean": "2785711339.8700004",
|
"profit_median": "2785711339.8700004",
|
"profit_min": "2785711339.8700004"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "4.694",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "36.71069450362164465274818918",
|
"profit_max": "3885922445.572",
|
"profit_mean": "3885922445.572",
|
"profit_median": "3885922445.572",
|
"profit_min": "3885922445.572"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "002281.SZ",
|
"company": "光迅科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-23",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.720245039487036839897656505",
|
"annual_fcf": "802484455.84",
|
"book_value_per_share": "12.49067311147207287618370734",
|
"current_fcf": "-93258678.59",
|
"deduct_pe": "142.3829349757504984209745850",
|
"diluted_shares": "827848838.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "138812538658.780",
|
"market_cap": "142654911764.160",
|
"normalized_eps": "1.210257395167111353727599241",
|
"normalized_pe": "142.3829349757505055265484211",
|
"normalized_profit": "1001910178.26999995",
|
"pb": "13.79589382110500519721318033",
|
"price": "172.32",
|
"ps": "11.43093722378069423452315736",
|
"reported_pe": "137.6890170468644512756500311",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "1036066019.09",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "1001910178.27",
|
"ttm_eps": "1.251515942926285776824391701",
|
"ttm_revenue": "12479721388.67"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-34155840.82000005",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "8.616",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5715468611890347117261578679",
|
"implied_profit": "7132745588.208",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.8928",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4572374889512277693809262943",
|
"implied_profit": "5706196470.5664",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.744",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3810312407926898078174385786",
|
"implied_profit": "4755163725.472",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.923428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3265982063937341209863759245",
|
"implied_profit": "4075854621.833142857142857143",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.308",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2857734305945173558630789340",
|
"implied_profit": "3566372794.104",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.4464",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2286187444756138846904631472",
|
"implied_profit": "2853098235.2832",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.872",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1905156203963449039087192893",
|
"implied_profit": "2377581862.736",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.2976",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1524124963170759231269754314",
|
"implied_profit": "1902065490.1888",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.7232",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1143093722378069423452315736",
|
"implied_profit": "1426549117.6416",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.25995325852782647",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.36351618606411285",
|
"equity_value_high": "31665218053.50",
|
"equity_value_low": "14901279084.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "38.25",
|
"price_low": "18",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7780292479108635097493036212",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8955431754874651810584958217"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与7家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.09693100326573867",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2355037392479149",
|
"equity_value_high": "85682354733.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "37253197710.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "103.5",
|
"price_low": "45",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3993732590529247910863509749",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7388579387186629526462395543"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.03964892412791232",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.07955155196032415",
|
"equity_value_high": "173268761793.40",
|
"equity_value_low": "94250590206.30",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "209.3",
|
"price_low": "113.85",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.214600742804085422469823584",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.3393105849582172701949860724"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
