{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "147.7629166668413672994783851",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.6636109082378654959430734521"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "395.8955682",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "12558175883.30932374"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "10046540706.647458992"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "8372117255.53954916"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "7176100504.748184994285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "6279087941.65466187"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "5023270353.323729496"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "4186058627.76977458"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "3348846902.215819664"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "2511635176.661864748"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "3.528666666667",
|
"profit": "2238651815.9348783"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "4.975666666667",
|
"profit": "3156655550.392878"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "6.495166666667",
|
"profit": "4120654634.365878"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池6家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.528666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007167796209210400530815434739",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "69.66370678253639556334664077",
|
"profit_max": "2238651815.9348783",
|
"profit_mean": "2238651815.9348783",
|
"profit_median": "2238651815.9348783",
|
"profit_min": "2238651815.9348783"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "4.975666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000004420437953156880603536116274",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "49.40443491659078369156864330",
|
"profit_max": "3156655550.392878",
|
"profit_mean": "3156655550.392878",
|
"profit_median": "3156655550.392878",
|
"profit_min": "3156655550.392878"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "6.495166666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000003386306603719370312179471100",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "37.84660388493814263779588626",
|
"profit_max": "4120654634.365878",
|
"profit_mean": "4120654634.365878",
|
"profit_median": "4120654634.365878",
|
"profit_min": "4120654634.365878"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "300604.SZ",
|
"company": "长川科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-25",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.4223954823066949863375413025",
|
"annual_fcf": "6903688.61",
|
"book_value_per_share": "8.028074993950287845747224560",
|
"current_fcf": "-322492237.64",
|
"deduct_pe": "101.9420486387866778529737746",
|
"diluted_shares": "634418614.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "157318740222.9999997",
|
"market_cap": "155952783693.480",
|
"normalized_eps": "2.411370021324752697120579757",
|
"normalized_pe": "101.9420486387866745211379989",
|
"normalized_profit": "1529818026.77000005",
|
"pb": "30.62004281041749674161278297",
|
"price": "245.82",
|
"ps": "26.63691349142060916239492319",
|
"reported_pe": "99.14840490645297966952839739",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "1572922770.07",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "1529818026.77",
|
"ttm_eps": "2.479313713941564772561985390",
|
"ttm_revenue": "5854761804.28"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-43104743.29999995",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "12.291",
|
"implied_margin": "1.331845674571030458119746159",
|
"implied_profit": "7797639184.674",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "9.8328",
|
"implied_margin": "1.065476539656824366495796927",
|
"implied_profit": "6238111347.7392",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "8.194",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8878971163806869720798307729",
|
"implied_profit": "5198426123.116",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "7.023428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7610546711834459760684263767",
|
"implied_profit": "4455793819.813714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.1455",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6659228372855152290598730797",
|
"implied_profit": "3898819592.337",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.9164",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5327382698284121832478984637",
|
"implied_profit": "3119055673.8696",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.097",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4439485581903434860399153864",
|
"implied_profit": "2599213061.558",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.2776",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3551588465522747888319323092",
|
"implied_profit": "2079370449.2464",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.4582",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2663691349142060916239492319",
|
"implied_profit": "1559527836.9348",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.20364203009830162",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.30556885812672285",
|
"equity_value_high": "49949918643.10",
|
"equity_value_low": "25184832929.25",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "78.73337500009102822446505329",
|
"price_low": "39.69749999997635630533375239",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6797112724754249929848464190",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8385098852820097782713621659"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与6家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.037651767375098344",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.17733211148440875",
|
"equity_value_high": "128722479416.50",
|
"equity_value_low": "58764610168.25",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "202.8983333337379032198446813",
|
"price_low": "92.62749999994483137911208891",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.1746060803281348009932280478",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6231897323246894826331783870"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.10099023556613163",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.0191314944966684",
|
"equity_value_high": "252296059656.20",
|
"equity_value_low": "141594727358.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "397.6807333339056158273439310",
|
"price_low": "223.1881666668752565951666733",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.617772082555958082447904690",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.0920666883619101106697312127"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
