{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "18.85718079103991530618341790",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.06401703438159289198147043575"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "28.4255015",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "212610081.97398145"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "170088065.57918516"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "141740054.6493209666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "121491475.4137036857142857143"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "106305040.986990725"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "85044032.78959258"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "70870027.32466048333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "56696021.85972838666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "42522016.39479629"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
|
"detail": [],
|
"summary": {}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "001296.SZ",
|
"company": "长江材料",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.685888444890973190892438717",
|
"annual_fcf": "51609496.87",
|
"book_value_per_share": "12.14404853475025911637542360",
|
"current_fcf": "-27661673.65",
|
"deduct_pe": "23.53997158545314776826041881",
|
"diluted_shares": "149591086.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "2476912579.450",
|
"market_cap": "2640282667.900",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.7497885006329854781587721076",
|
"normalized_pe": "23.53997158545315089540320842",
|
"normalized_profit": "112161676.0799999851",
|
"pb": "1.453386813260374548313014722",
|
"price": "17.65",
|
"ps": "2.300800901741741446594971691",
|
"reported_pe": "23.45329355604236522032730526",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "112576200.08",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "112161676.08",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.7525595481003460326506353460",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1147549388.52"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-414524.0000000149",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 1,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "补充法定披露、行情接口或机构预测汇总页来源。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-CORE-SOURCE-MISSING",
|
"message": "核心字段没有由注册表中允许承载核心数字的来源支持。",
|
"recalc_scope": "institutions",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "不得以公司业绩预告或自有情景冒充机构预期。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-NONE",
|
"message": "估值日没有可用机构盈利预测，已明确记录为空。",
|
"recalc_scope": "机构预期模块",
|
"severity": "INFO"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8825",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1150400450870870723297485845",
|
"implied_profit": "132014133.395",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.706",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09203203606966965786379886764",
|
"implied_profit": "105611306.716",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5883333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07669336339139138155316572303",
|
"implied_profit": "88009422.26333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5042857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06573716862119261275985633402",
|
"implied_profit": "75436647.65428571428571428571",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.44125",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05752002254354353616487429227",
|
"implied_profit": "66007066.6975",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.353",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04601601803483482893189943382",
|
"implied_profit": "52805653.358",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2941666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03834668169569569077658286152",
|
"implied_profit": "44004711.13166666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2353333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03067734535655655262126628921",
|
"implied_profit": "35203768.90533333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1765",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02300800901741741446594971691",
|
"implied_profit": "26402826.679",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.11190201549451528",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.23618339133862742",
|
"equity_value_high": "1458662597.46",
|
"equity_value_low": "686429457.6",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "9.750999450996699094757557947",
|
"price_low": "4.588705623809696789018564916",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4475354418698754053961723543",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7400166785376942329167951889"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与无家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.08256111150433565",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.08256120824957713",
|
"equity_value_high": "3925658662.8",
|
"equity_value_low": "1716073644.06",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "26.24259752215449522172731602",
|
"price_low": "11.47176405992533539063951979",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.486832720801954403497298358",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.3500416963215107427399705501"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.2308443663583768",
|
"cagr_low": "0.10339486638969042",
|
"equity_value_high": "7458751459.32",
|
"equity_value_low": "4318224529.08",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "49.86093529209354092128190045",
|
"price_low": "28.86685727436994474390004763",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.824982169523713366644866881",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.635515992882149843847028194"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
