{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "36.74400624997276042957054010",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.9064333791868961057097968104"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "112.8162255",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "5384119163.32514400"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "4307295330.66011520"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "3589412775.55009600"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "3076639521.900082285714285714"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "2692059581.66257200"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "2153647665.33005760"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1794706387.77504800"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "1435765110.22003840"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "1076823832.66502880"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.13495",
|
"profit": "1083302692.912"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.4812",
|
"profit": "1413796157.312"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.906833333333",
|
"profit": "1820060518.0263486"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池20家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.13495",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "61.72078065113000572712454293",
|
"profit_max": "1083302692.912",
|
"profit_mean": "1083302692.912",
|
"profit_median": "1083302692.912",
|
"profit_min": "1083302692.912"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.4812",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "47.29273561976775587361598704",
|
"profit_max": "1413796157.312",
|
"profit_mean": "1413796157.312",
|
"profit_median": "1413796157.312",
|
"profit_min": "1413796157.312"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.906833333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000005380040884914269347795251654",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "36.73629927454535879610499532",
|
"profit_max": "1820060518.0263486",
|
"profit_mean": "1820060518.0263486",
|
"profit_median": "1820060518.0263486",
|
"profit_min": "1820060518.0263486"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "300054.SZ",
|
"company": "鼎龙股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.605847648978079282298375560",
|
"annual_fcf": "381170201.37",
|
"book_value_per_share": "5.738431018176588184295725516",
|
"current_fcf": "99974648.28",
|
"deduct_pe": "85.82829769591054480939227052",
|
"diluted_shares": "954493760.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "68353589067.490",
|
"market_cap": "66862287888.000",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.8161643872768743873192004943",
|
"normalized_pe": "85.82829769591054536026309158",
|
"normalized_profit": "779023814.789999995",
|
"pb": "12.20716948206143934268211471",
|
"price": "70.05",
|
"ps": "17.33918910551344702908727757",
|
"reported_pe": "80.54078309351500494038953612",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "830166846.16",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "779023814.79",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.8697457028529971741250566164",
|
"ttm_revenue": "3856136955.49"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-51143031.370000005",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.5025",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8669594552756723514543638785",
|
"implied_profit": "3343114394.400",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.802",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6935675642205378811634911028",
|
"implied_profit": "2674491515.520",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.335",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5779729701837815676362425856",
|
"implied_profit": "2228742929.600",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.001428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4954054030146699151167793592",
|
"implied_profit": "1910351082.514285714285714286",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.75125",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4334797276378361757271819392",
|
"implied_profit": "1671557197.200",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.401",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3467837821102689405817455514",
|
"implied_profit": "1337245757.760",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.1675",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2889864850918907838181212928",
|
"implied_profit": "1114371464.800",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.934",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2311891880735126270544970343",
|
"implied_profit": "891497171.840",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7005",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1733918910551344702908727757",
|
"implied_profit": "668622878.880",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.21973637333028362",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.33379065286770215",
|
"equity_value_high": "19336953068.44",
|
"equity_value_low": "8774751812.58",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "20.25885749995893110919866045",
|
"price_low": "9.193094999992456734342611103",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7107943254823849948722532413",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8687638115632768489030319614"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与20家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.05710076311522394",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.21202221776452113",
|
"equity_value_high": "49831923874.00",
|
"equity_value_low": "20311925492.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "52.20770000005028843771592598",
|
"price_low": "21.28031249989523242142515421",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2547080656666625490690089082",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6962125267680909004792982982"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.07485883610866728",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.03895478375818906",
|
"equity_value_high": "95926453457.45",
|
"equity_value_low": "54815116261.20",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "100.4998225000968052426031575",
|
"price_low": "57.42846999984578212433782700",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.434686973591674593042157852",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.1801788722363200267760481513"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
