{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "63.33359375",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.9959391614343691021007314937"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "203.5845691",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "692187534.94000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "553750027.95200000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "461458356.6266666666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "395535734.2514285714285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "346093767.47000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "276875013.97600000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "230729178.3133333333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "184583342.6506666666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "138437506.98800000"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.95625",
|
"profit": "133025000.0"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "3.24375",
|
"profit": "220575000.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "4.7625",
|
"profit": "323850000.0"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池8家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.95625",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "64.61853035143769968051118211",
|
"profit_max": "133025000.0",
|
"profit_mean": "133025000.0",
|
"profit_median": "133025000.0",
|
"profit_min": "133025000.0"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.24375",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "38.97032755298651252408477842",
|
"profit_max": "220575000.0",
|
"profit_mean": "220575000.0",
|
"profit_median": "220575000.0",
|
"profit_min": "220575000.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "4.7625",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "26.54278215223097112860892388",
|
"profit_max": "323850000.0",
|
"profit_mean": "323850000.0",
|
"profit_median": "323850000.0",
|
"profit_min": "323850000.0"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "688610.SH",
|
"company": "埃科光电",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.4858281237971753311063119882",
|
"annual_fcf": "-111992092.33",
|
"book_value_per_share": "22.83020531779411764705882353",
|
"current_fcf": "-58152548.55",
|
"deduct_pe": "112.1577459143034636962295752",
|
"diluted_shares": "68000000.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "8341789093.490",
|
"market_cap": "8595880000.000",
|
"normalized_eps": "1.127073292794117541176470588",
|
"normalized_pe": "112.1577459143034742328345271",
|
"normalized_profit": "76640983.9099999928",
|
"pb": "5.536962906832670078022411160",
|
"price": "126.41",
|
"ps": "16.78862677067040653780212015",
|
"reported_pe": "109.4335035972674823297663638",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "78548887.84",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "76640983.91",
|
"ttm_eps": "1.155130703529411764705882353",
|
"ttm_revenue": "512006140.67"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-1907903.9300000072",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.3205",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8394313385335203268901060073",
|
"implied_profit": "429794000.000",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.0564",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6715450708268162615120848058",
|
"implied_profit": "343835200.000",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.213666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5596208923556802179267373381",
|
"implied_profit": "286529333.3333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.611714285714285714285714286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4796750505905830439372034327",
|
"implied_profit": "245596571.4285714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.16025",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4197156692667601634450530036",
|
"implied_profit": "214897000.000",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.5282",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3357725354134081307560424029",
|
"implied_profit": "171917600.000",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.106833333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2798104461778401089633686692",
|
"implied_profit": "143264666.6666666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.685466666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2238483569422720871706949352",
|
"implied_profit": "114611733.3333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.2641",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1678862677067040653780212015",
|
"implied_profit": "85958800.000",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2268634076456958",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3398758998484567",
|
"equity_value_high": "2374496250.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "1077502500.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "34.9190625",
|
"price_low": "15.845625",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7237634483031405743216517681",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8746489597341982438098251721"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与8家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.06571333326202422",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2192197142278529",
|
"equity_value_high": "6119150000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "2494218750.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "89.9875",
|
"price_low": "36.6796875",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2881298947868048413891306068",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7098355549402737125227434538"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.06504092899647262",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.04773310175303713",
|
"equity_value_high": "11779363750.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "6731065000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "173.2259375",
|
"price_low": "98.98625",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.370349952535400680325923582",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.2169428842654853255280436674"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
