{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "34.71875",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-1.464086408640864086408640864"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "137.7791305",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "3003585044.90000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2402868035.92000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "2002390029.933333333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1716334311.371428571428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1501792522.45000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1201434017.96000000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1001195014.966666666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "800956011.9733333333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "600717008.98000000"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.01",
|
"profit": "440360000.0"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.46",
|
"profit": "636560000.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.92",
|
"profit": "837120000.0"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池1家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.01",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "84.70297029702970297029702970",
|
"profit_max": "440360000.0",
|
"profit_mean": "440360000.0",
|
"profit_median": "440360000.0",
|
"profit_min": "440360000.0"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.46",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "58.59589041095890410958904110",
|
"profit_max": "636560000.0",
|
"profit_mean": "636560000.0",
|
"profit_median": "636560000.0",
|
"profit_min": "636560000.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.92",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "44.55729166666666666666666667",
|
"profit_max": "837120000.0",
|
"profit_mean": "837120000.0",
|
"profit_median": "837120000.0",
|
"profit_min": "837120000.0"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "301611.SZ",
|
"company": "珂玛科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.8267004284621697659576329930",
|
"annual_fcf": "-45843715.24",
|
"book_value_per_share": "4.197923715389907798165137615",
|
"current_fcf": "-18829234.23",
|
"deduct_pe": "151.1420994222577385656797846",
|
"diluted_shares": "436000000.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "37381882974.160",
|
"market_cap": "37299800000.000",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.5660236315825687798165137615",
|
"normalized_pe": "151.1420994222577459149741673",
|
"normalized_profit": "246786303.369999988",
|
"pb": "20.37912210895285918028163001",
|
"price": "85.55",
|
"ps": "34.03191755684840465737986958",
|
"reported_pe": "150.4739879871651496654711813",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "247882045.92",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "246786303.37",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.5685368025688073394495412844",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1096024046.77"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-1095742.550000012",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.2775",
|
"implied_margin": "1.701595877842420232868993479",
|
"implied_profit": "1864990000.000",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.422",
|
"implied_margin": "1.361276702273936186295194783",
|
"implied_profit": "1491992000.000",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.851666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "1.134397251894946821912662320",
|
"implied_profit": "1243326666.666666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.444285714285714285714285714",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9723405016242401330679962733",
|
"implied_profit": "1065708571.428571428571428571",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.13875",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8507979389212101164344967394",
|
"implied_profit": "932495000.000",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.711",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6806383511369680931475973916",
|
"implied_profit": "745996000.000",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.425833333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5671986259474734109563311596",
|
"implied_profit": "621663333.3333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.140666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4537589007579787287650649277",
|
"implied_profit": "497330666.6666666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8555",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3403191755684840465737986958",
|
"implied_profit": "372998000.000",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.26760070754939647",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3746584644139822",
|
"equity_value_high": "7860426000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "3566916000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "18.0285",
|
"price_low": "8.181",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7892635885447106954997077732",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9043717124488603156049094097"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与1家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.10005851353598383",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.26035976758316093",
|
"equity_value_high": "22018000000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "8256750000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "50.5",
|
"price_low": "18.9375",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4097019286966686148451198130",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7786382232612507305669199299"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.025889109744632544",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.082739250779446",
|
"equity_value_high": "42384650000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "24219800000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "97.2125",
|
"price_low": "55.55",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.136323787258912916423144360",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.3506721215663354763296317943"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
