{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "38.66940000002347136359798390",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.6915183581839981421377729837"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "105.3434591",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "9425156028.38695435"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "7540124822.70956348"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "6283437352.257969566666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "5385803444.792545342857142857"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "4712578014.193477175"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "3770062411.35478174"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "3141718676.128984783333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "2513374940.903187826666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "1885031205.67739087"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.116",
|
"profit": "1996986660.1200001"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.397333333333",
|
"profit": "2500408625.812737"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.696666666667",
|
"profit": "3036040053.7672634"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池15家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.116",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000005007544717098457800010398344",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "58.61111111111110817613351303",
|
"profit_max": "1996986660.1200001",
|
"profit_mean": "1996986660.1200001",
|
"profit_median": "1996986660.1200001",
|
"profit_min": "1996986660.1200001"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.397333333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000005526696659634282431312126913",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "46.81059160306459917618468736",
|
"profit_max": "2500408625.812737",
|
"profit_mean": "2500408625.812737",
|
"profit_median": "2500408625.812737",
|
"profit_min": "2500408625.812737"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.696666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000008623404018505409919632531365",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "38.55206286836177426629193177",
|
"profit_max": "3036040053.7672634",
|
"profit_mean": "3036040053.7672634",
|
"profit_median": "3036040053.7672634",
|
"profit_min": "3036040053.7672634"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "600584.SH",
|
"company": "长电科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "2.972207459736498917483867922",
|
"annual_fcf": "-1646087059.13",
|
"book_value_per_share": "16.07566523412179436987595334",
|
"current_fcf": "-711342473.54",
|
"deduct_pe": "81.22713819271905768090513515",
|
"diluted_shares": "1789414570.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "124056496245.170",
|
"market_cap": "117045607023.700",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.8052727383403387902446776210",
|
"normalized_pe": "81.22713819271906613638861730",
|
"normalized_profit": "1440966770.80999985",
|
"pb": "4.068882938739133049949729379",
|
"price": "65.41",
|
"ps": "3.023868475360008346827217669",
|
"reported_pe": "70.84453726532511474738141082",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "1652147244.40",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "1440966770.81",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.9232892545409418455780205255",
|
"ttm_revenue": "38707241395.40"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-211180473.59000015",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.2705",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1511934237680004173413608834",
|
"implied_profit": "5852280351.185",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.6164",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1209547390144003338730887068",
|
"implied_profit": "4681824280.948",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.180333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1007956158453336115609072556",
|
"implied_profit": "3901520234.123333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.868857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08639624215314309562363479054",
|
"implied_profit": "3344160200.677142857142857143",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.63525",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07559671188400020867068044172",
|
"implied_profit": "2926140175.5925",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.3082",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06047736950720016693654435338",
|
"implied_profit": "2340912140.474",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.090166666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05039780792266680578045362782",
|
"implied_profit": "1950760117.061666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8721333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04031824633813344462436290224",
|
"implied_profit": "1560608093.649333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6541",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03023868475360008346827217669",
|
"implied_profit": "1170456070.237",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2116271616888047",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3268667973810603",
|
"equity_value_high": "35646211883.24",
|
"equity_value_low": "16175591946.90",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "19.92060000005476651506196242",
|
"price_low": "9.039599999959763376689170470",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6954502369659873640871126369",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8618009478679137230287544646"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与15家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.037959323042657034",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.18558105428838245",
|
"equity_value_high": "96454455683.88",
|
"equity_value_low": "41936719862.52",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "53.90280000004694272719596779",
|
"price_low": "23.436",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.1759241706153960751078433299",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6417061611374407582938388626"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.10509454306072152",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.019444969035166126",
|
"equity_value_high": "192908911367.40",
|
"equity_value_low": "106099901252.10",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "107.8055999998927023378377879",
|
"price_low": "59.29307999995775154552362899",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.648151658766132125635801680",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.0935165876783710205545997708"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
