{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "45.39947916724489282898583916",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-5.073417692398009874281340436"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "444.0659223",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "4479881256.77396304"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "3583905005.419170432"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "2986587504.51597536"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "2559932146.72797888"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "2239940628.38698152"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1791952502.709585216"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1493293752.25798768"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "1194635001.806390144"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "895976251.354792608"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.084166666667",
|
"profit": "218748509.4134006"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "2.080833333333",
|
"profit": "419842450.42659944"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "3.401666666667",
|
"profit": "686342363.8934005"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池12家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.084166666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000005105406217371849636217392171",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "254.3243658723276351737795489",
|
"profit_max": "218748509.4134006",
|
"profit_mean": "218748509.4134006",
|
"profit_median": "218748509.4134006",
|
"profit_min": "218748509.4134006"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.080833333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000006867337967064544018737331296",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "132.5094112935734805935699870",
|
"profit_max": "419842450.42659944",
|
"profit_mean": "419842450.42659944",
|
"profit_median": "419842450.42659944",
|
"profit_min": "419842450.42659944"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.401666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001294281173262925273732980881",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "81.05732484075639879831490590",
|
"profit_max": "686342363.8934005",
|
"profit_mean": "686342363.8934005",
|
"profit_median": "686342363.8934005",
|
"profit_min": "686342363.8934005"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "688037.SH",
|
"company": "芯源微",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-30",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.436015351108643368261985788",
|
"annual_fcf": "-98012343.57",
|
"book_value_per_share": "13.88199090353434942935223497",
|
"current_fcf": "-375291026.23",
|
"deduct_pe": "3859.506612989121840096578206",
|
"diluted_shares": "201766496.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "55974489238.710",
|
"market_cap": "55633075942.080",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.07144177420814204951053915314",
|
"normalized_pe": "3859.506612989122911099109953",
|
"normalized_profit": "14414556.449999996",
|
"pb": "19.86242477149291679360791927",
|
"price": "275.73",
|
"ps": "27.76436388724729492480075385",
|
"reported_pe": "788.5173830063219921709357876",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "70554026.00",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "14414556.45",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3496815744869752805738371945",
|
"ttm_revenue": "2003758348.94"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-56139469.550000004",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "13.7865",
|
"implied_margin": "1.388218194362364746240037693",
|
"implied_profit": "2781653797.104",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "11.0292",
|
"implied_margin": "1.110574555489891796992030154",
|
"implied_profit": "2225323037.6832",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "9.191",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9254787962415764974933584618",
|
"implied_profit": "1854435864.736",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "7.878",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7932675396356369978514501101",
|
"implied_profit": "1589516455.488",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.89325",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6941090971811823731200188463",
|
"implied_profit": "1390826898.552",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.5146",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5552872777449458984960150771",
|
"implied_profit": "1112661518.8416",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.5955",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4627393981207882487466792309",
|
"implied_profit": "927217932.368",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.6764",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3701915184966305989973433847",
|
"implied_profit": "741774345.8944",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.7573",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2776436388724729492480075385",
|
"implied_profit": "556330759.4208",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.38534410294893817",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4640146610132737",
|
"equity_value_high": "4880826116.25",
|
"equity_value_low": "2460920731.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "24.19046874982653215130424825",
|
"price_low": "12.19687500049562242484500499",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9122675488709007646926186913",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9557651506890957733114096943"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与12家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2572272287605505",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3650372218237812",
|
"equity_value_high": "12578039291.50",
|
"equity_value_low": "5742148372.10",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "62.33958333448978565797167831",
|
"price_low": "28.459375",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7739107701937047631452084347",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8967853516120842853516120843"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.15021866237796322",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2429326585184718",
|
"equity_value_high": "24652957011.20",
|
"equity_value_low": "13835843220.50",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "122.1855833349061084948414825",
|
"price_low": "68.57354166719533058650133866",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.5568651095821778243396022105",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7513018472157714772186510766"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
