{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "6.86166666656985605733914259",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-2.557444741366684244798742531"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "39.3125491",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1861185648.55583360"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1488948518.84466688"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1240790432.370555733333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1063534656.31761920"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "930592824.27791680"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "744474259.42233344"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "620395216.1852778666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "496316172.9482222933333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "372237129.71116672"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.153333333333",
|
"profit": "145186107.7330177"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.296666666667",
|
"profit": "280903556.26698226"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.57",
|
"profit": "539713574.4"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": false,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池3家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"STALE_BELOW_REPORTED_CUMULATIVE"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "600641.SH",
|
"company": "先导基电",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-08-01",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-06-30"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": null,
|
"annual_fcf": "-4421567322.28",
|
"book_value_per_share": "8.882719239974335542671131304",
|
"current_fcf": "-1248969177.70",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "946865920.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "24228984398.090",
|
"market_cap": "23112997107.200",
|
"normalized_eps": "-0.3009967765129829152579490874",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-285003589.70999996",
|
"pb": "2.748032369429085632057370160",
|
"price": "24.41",
|
"ps": "10.05109901677503552680828565",
|
"reported_pe": "540.9361509181652862307328093",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "42727773.08",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-285003589.71",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.04512547360454160183524188937",
|
"ttm_revenue": "2299549240.20"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-327731362.78999996",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "保留作公告前预期对照，但不纳入当前一致预期。",
|
"field": "institutions.东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池3家）",
|
"issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-STALE",
|
"message": "机构预测已早于最新经营信息或低于已实现累计利润。",
|
"recalc_scope": "机构预期与 Forward PE",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 3
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.2205",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5025549508387517763404142826",
|
"implied_profit": "1155649855.360",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9764",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4020439606710014210723314260",
|
"implied_profit": "924519884.288",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8136666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3350366338925011842269428551",
|
"implied_profit": "770433236.9066666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6974285714285714285714285714",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2871742576221438721945224472",
|
"implied_profit": "660371345.920",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.61025",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2512774754193758881702071413",
|
"implied_profit": "577824927.680",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4882",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2010219803355007105361657130",
|
"implied_profit": "462259942.144",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4068333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1675183169462505921134714275",
|
"implied_profit": "385216618.4533333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3254666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1340146535570004736907771420",
|
"implied_profit": "308173294.7626666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2441",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1005109901677503552680828565",
|
"implied_profit": "231129971.072",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.3249694842455856",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.42622608759773173",
|
"equity_value_high": "3239465028.80",
|
"equity_value_low": "1437342466.56",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "3.42125",
|
"price_low": "1.518",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8598422777550184350675952478",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9378123719786972552232691520"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与3家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.1685696656790009",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3026679582951646",
|
"equity_value_high": "9183021313.95",
|
"equity_value_low": "3811135328.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "9.698333333139712114678285179",
|
"price_low": "4.025",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6026901543162756200459530857",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8351085620647275706677591151"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.05378203927246117",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.15256889158282005",
|
"equity_value_high": "17531222508.75",
|
"equity_value_low": "10101323445.40",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "18.51499999994719421309407778",
|
"price_low": "10.66816666651176969174262814",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2414993854999101100739828849",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5629591697455235685480283433"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
