{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "4.8125",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-8.315324675324675324675324675"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "72.1991633",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "760257189.54900000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "608205751.63920000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "506838126.36600000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "434432679.7422857142857142857"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "380128594.77450000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "304102875.81960000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "253419063.18300000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "202735250.54640000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "152051437.90980000"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.14",
|
"profit": "29484000.000000004"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.39",
|
"profit": "292734000.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "2.68",
|
"profit": "564408000.0"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池1家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.14",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001356668023334689817301855469",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "320.2142857142856708432660814",
|
"profit_max": "29484000.000000004",
|
"profit_mean": "29484000.000000004",
|
"profit_median": "29484000.000000004",
|
"profit_min": "29484000.000000004"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.39",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "32.25179856115107913669064748",
|
"profit_max": "292734000.0",
|
"profit_mean": "292734000.0",
|
"profit_median": "292734000.0",
|
"profit_min": "292734000.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.68",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "16.72761194029850746268656716",
|
"profit_max": "564408000.0",
|
"profit_mean": "564408000.0",
|
"profit_median": "564408000.0",
|
"profit_min": "564408000.0"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "301307.SZ",
|
"company": "美利信",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-24",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": null,
|
"annual_fcf": "-657867682.20",
|
"book_value_per_share": "11.59414708266856457739791073",
|
"current_fcf": "-89321111.16",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "210600000.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "11917808828.580",
|
"market_cap": "9441198000.000",
|
"normalized_eps": "-2.757125888841405080721747388",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-580650712.18999991",
|
"pb": "3.866606114305194055604043804",
|
"price": "44.83",
|
"ps": "2.345191498170444525895201229",
|
"reported_pe": null,
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "-560115810.97",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-580650712.19",
|
"ttm_eps": "-2.659619235375118708452041785",
|
"ttm_revenue": "4025768474.50"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-20534901.21999991",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "使用正常化情景、PB 或反向估值。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_attributable_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-PROFIT",
|
"message": "TTM 归母利润不为正，报告 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 3
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.2415",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1172595749085222262947600615",
|
"implied_profit": "472059900.000",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.7932",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09380765992681778103580804917",
|
"implied_profit": "377647920.000",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.494333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07817304993901481752984004098",
|
"implied_profit": "314706600.000",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.280857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06700547137629841502557717799",
|
"implied_profit": "269748514.2857142857142857143",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.12075",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05862978745426111314738003073",
|
"implied_profit": "236029950.000",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8966",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04690382996340889051790402459",
|
"implied_profit": "188823960.000",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7471666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03908652496950740876492002049",
|
"implied_profit": "157353300.000",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5977333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03126921997560592701193601639",
|
"implied_profit": "125882640.000",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4483",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02345191498170444525895201229",
|
"implied_profit": "94411980.000",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.4386425335381581",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.5206984172317446",
|
"equity_value_high": "526289400.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "238820400.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "2.499",
|
"price_low": "1.134",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9442560785188489850546509034",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9747044389917465982600936873"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与1家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.3102275247768397",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4330926159506525",
|
"equity_value_high": "1474200000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "552825000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "7",
|
"price_low": "2.625",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8438545616774481374079857238",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9414454606290430515279946464"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.21369324430924108",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.29695293868396355",
|
"equity_value_high": "2837835000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "1621620000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "13.475",
|
"price_low": "7.7",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6994200312290876645103725184",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8282400178451929511487842962"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
