{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "45.09375000029358964163133061",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-1.019126819113673297979613764"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "146.6369355",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1248655561.25560140"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "998924449.00448112"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "832437040.83706760"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "713517463.5746293714285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "624327780.62780070"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "499462224.50224056"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "416218520.41853380"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "332974816.33482704"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "249731112.25112028"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.392857142857",
|
"profit": "237211560.85711852"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "2.234285714286",
|
"profit": "380511673.00576293"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "3.041666666667",
|
"profit": "518013280.3333901"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池7家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.392857142857",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000003267968884817263315663776236",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "65.36923076923747590350450511",
|
"profit_max": "237211560.85711852",
|
"profit_mean": "237211560.85711852",
|
"profit_median": "237211560.85711852",
|
"profit_min": "237211560.85711852"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.234285714286",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000003809607175909280187884635886",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "40.75127877237330701553622692",
|
"profit_max": "380511673.00576293",
|
"profit_mean": "380511673.00576293",
|
"profit_median": "380511673.00576293",
|
"profit_min": "380511673.00576293"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.041666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000000000000000003691025061692334964037768061",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "29.93424657533918539853459248",
|
"profit_max": "518013280.3333901",
|
"profit_mean": "518013280.3333901",
|
"profit_median": "518013280.3333901",
|
"profit_min": "518013280.3333901"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "688233.SH",
|
"company": "神工股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-25",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.698029405882723256982673476",
|
"annual_fcf": "-803635.11",
|
"book_value_per_share": "11.24920112937358727600343420",
|
"current_fcf": "18745045.34",
|
"deduct_pe": "158.5479987960748916465224616",
|
"diluted_shares": "170305736.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "14785767814.499999999",
|
"market_cap": "15506337262.800",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.5742740412454458521584968812",
|
"normalized_pe": "158.5479987960748713826559080",
|
"normalized_profit": "97802163.2600000125",
|
"pb": "8.093908087593250011783469840",
|
"price": "91.05",
|
"ps": "34.87882631813560376774307229",
|
"reported_pe": "156.7695666503459273536800787",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "98911654.82",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "97802163.26",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.5807887458353134976029227812",
|
"ttm_revenue": "444577381.17"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-1109491.5599999875",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.5525",
|
"implied_margin": "1.743941315906780188387153614",
|
"implied_profit": "775316863.140",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.642",
|
"implied_margin": "1.395153052725424150709722892",
|
"implied_profit": "620253490.512",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.035",
|
"implied_margin": "1.162627543937853458924769076",
|
"implied_profit": "516877908.760",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.601428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9965378948038743933640877796",
|
"implied_profit": "443038207.5085714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.27625",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8719706579533900941935768072",
|
"implied_profit": "387658431.570",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.821",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6975765263627120753548614458",
|
"implied_profit": "310126745.256",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.5175",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5813137719689267294623845382",
|
"implied_profit": "258438954.380",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.214",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4650510175751413835699076305",
|
"implied_profit": "206751163.504",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9105",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3487882631813560376774307229",
|
"implied_profit": "155063372.628",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.22864736187805368",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.341399086297409",
|
"equity_value_high": "4234226361.40",
|
"equity_value_low": "1921413643.02",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "24.86250000058717928326266122",
|
"price_low": "11.28214285759582401851691008",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7269357495816894092996961975",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8760884914047685445522579892"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与7家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.0678691291084309",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.22102130571103762",
|
"equity_value_high": "10911731799.60",
|
"equity_value_low": "4447716766.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "64.07142857243516448559313352",
|
"price_low": "26.11607142815201479766952770",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2963050129331667821461490003",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7131678041938274047482753685"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.0625834275722903",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.04993038562994778",
|
"equity_value_high": "21005083713.90",
|
"equity_value_low": "12002904979.20",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "123.3375",
|
"price_low": "70.47857142756483551440686648",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.354612850082372322899505766",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.2259355142496997746907538003"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
