{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "13.43034000008971026783624137",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-14.41956495506567270061388895"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "333.5205159",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "8770176658.532467035"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "7016141326.825973628"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "5846784439.02164469"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "5011529519.161409734285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "4385088329.2662335175"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "3508070663.412986814"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "2923392219.510822345"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "2338713775.608657876"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "1754035331.706493407"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.3876",
|
"profit": "203844759.8148"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.372733333333",
|
"profit": "721941425.7560247"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "2.815416666667",
|
"profit": "1480670624.8589253"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池14家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.3876",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "534.2879256965944272445820433",
|
"profit_max": "203844759.8148",
|
"profit_mean": "203844759.8148",
|
"profit_median": "203844759.8148",
|
"profit_min": "203844759.8148"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.372733333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000000000000000007051818635658219683850507901",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "150.8595988539048261905129768",
|
"profit_max": "721941425.7560247",
|
"profit_mean": "721941425.7560247",
|
"profit_median": "721941425.7560247",
|
"profit_min": "721941425.7560247"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.815416666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000000000000000003438306882386525438053189149",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "73.55571999407150468150041087",
|
"profit_max": "1480670624.8589253",
|
"profit_mean": "1480670624.8589253",
|
"profit_median": "1480670624.8589253",
|
"profit_min": "1480670624.8589253"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "688521.SH",
|
"company": "芯原股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-30",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": null,
|
"annual_fcf": "-472755172.81",
|
"book_value_per_share": "5.983853977882098890860695730",
|
"current_fcf": "-320107119.80",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "525915273.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "108958767174.970",
|
"market_cap": "108911793885.570",
|
"normalized_eps": "-1.360599698727517217397867812",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-715560161.99999997",
|
"pb": "34.60813060704007991149010104",
|
"price": "207.09",
|
"ps": "30.26577051333332035662438563",
|
"reported_pe": null,
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "-648312824.47",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-715560162.00",
|
"ttm_eps": "-1.232732452837512478934986168",
|
"ttm_revenue": "3598513833.89"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-67247337.52999997",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "使用正常化情景、PB 或反向估值。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_attributable_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-PROFIT",
|
"message": "TTM 归母利润不为正，报告 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 3
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "10.3545",
|
"implied_margin": "1.513288525666666017831219282",
|
"implied_profit": "5445589694.2785",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "8.2836",
|
"implied_margin": "1.210630820533332814264975425",
|
"implied_profit": "4356471755.4228",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.903",
|
"implied_margin": "1.008859017111110678554146188",
|
"implied_profit": "3630393129.519",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.916857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8647363003809520101892681608",
|
"implied_profit": "3111765539.587714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.17725",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7566442628333330089156096408",
|
"implied_profit": "2722794847.13925",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.1418",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6053154102666664071324877126",
|
"implied_profit": "2178235877.7114",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.4515",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5044295085555553392770730939",
|
"implied_profit": "1815196564.7595",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.7612",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4035436068444442714216584751",
|
"implied_profit": "1452157251.8076",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.0709",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3026577051333332035662438563",
|
"implied_profit": "1089117938.8557",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.49327471905614906",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.5673447959668709",
|
"equity_value_high": "3638628962.64",
|
"equity_value_low": "1651142554.56",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "6.918659999896979603404672372",
|
"price_low": "3.139560000114314991570895109",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9665910473712058544429732369",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9848396349407778502507562166"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与14家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.3816500155462371",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4765336284839432",
|
"equity_value_high": "9845701899.18",
|
"equity_value_low": "4280739956.08",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "18.72108000023798510221246227",
|
"price_low": "8.139599999941435433460020470",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9095993046490029209415594076",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9606953498481750184293784322"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2897023900481176",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.36974994646644155",
|
"equity_value_high": "19691403798.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "10830272089.14",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "37.44215999979144929681477419",
|
"price_low": "20.59318800034164438498822604",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8191986093013112690288532803",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9005592351135175798687129942"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
