{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "8.120835195895971043215045145",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.2242177253906306436119588426"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "10.146213",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "876647582.68116645"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "701318066.14493316"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "584431721.7874443"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "500941475.8178094"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "438323791.340583225"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "350659033.07246658"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "292215860.89372215"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "233772688.71497772"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "175329516.53623329"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.19",
|
"profit": "328325535.27"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.23",
|
"profit": "397446700.59000003"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.28",
|
"profit": "483848157.24000007"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池1家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.19",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "33.15789473684210526315789474",
|
"profit_max": "328325535.27",
|
"profit_mean": "328325535.27",
|
"profit_median": "328325535.27",
|
"profit_min": "328325535.27"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.23",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007548181921114384495070799467",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "27.39130434782608488897625639",
|
"profit_max": "397446700.59000003",
|
"profit_mean": "397446700.59000003",
|
"profit_median": "397446700.59000003",
|
"profit_min": "397446700.59000003"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.28",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001446734868213590261453238443",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "22.49999999999999674484654652",
|
"profit_max": "483848157.24000007",
|
"profit_mean": "483848157.24000007",
|
"profit_median": "483848157.24000007",
|
"profit_min": "483848157.24000007"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "300008.SZ",
|
"company": "天海防务",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.03429898759658880359741384188",
|
"annual_fcf": "-56643410.96",
|
"book_value_per_share": "1.449943346487550392473620409",
|
"current_fcf": "97161760.24",
|
"deduct_pe": "35.39274385452950592012578762",
|
"diluted_shares": "1728029133.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "11122804697.81",
|
"market_cap": "10886583537.90",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.1780025879285913115447458142",
|
"normalized_pe": "35.39274385452951627582353129",
|
"normalized_profit": "307593657.68999991",
|
"pb": "4.344997351283816875479998208",
|
"price": "6.3",
|
"ps": "2.273649649576969205133962867",
|
"reported_pe": "31.78719891002453373013815129",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "342483260.91",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "307593657.69",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.1981929901351958283217207774",
|
"ttm_revenue": "4788153504.62"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-34889603.22000009",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.315",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1136824824788484602566981434",
|
"implied_profit": "544329176.895",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.252",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09094598598307876820535851469",
|
"implied_profit": "435463341.516",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.21",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07578832165256564017113209558",
|
"implied_profit": "362886117.93",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.18",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06496141855934197728954179621",
|
"implied_profit": "311045243.94",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1575",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05684124123942423012834907168",
|
"implied_profit": "272164588.4475",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.126",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04547299299153938410267925735",
|
"implied_profit": "217731670.758",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.105",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03789416082628282008556604779",
|
"implied_profit": "181443058.965",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.084",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03031532866102625606845283823",
|
"implied_profit": "145154447.172",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.063",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02273649649576969205133962867",
|
"implied_profit": "108865835.379",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.08163627835829601",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2052771048409936",
|
"equity_value_high": "7111565365.76",
|
"equity_value_low": "3451200839.24",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "4.115419832890051165589926429",
|
"price_low": "1.997189036534605692900664771",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3467587566841188626047735827",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6829858672167292550951325760"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与1家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.12593380968006396",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.05129555761394056",
|
"equity_value_high": "19699532116.32",
|
"equity_value_low": "8366547489.28",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "11.40000000006944327367425234",
|
"price_low": "4.841670391722498812755837954",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.809523809534832265662579737",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.2314808902027779662292320708"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.27959605170852897",
|
"cagr_low": "0.14760226678542043",
|
"equity_value_high": "37347029636.80",
|
"equity_value_low": "21669485328.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "21.61249999990596223356611662",
|
"price_low": "12.54000000010416491051137851",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "2.430555555540628925962875654",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.990476190492724588970060081"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
