{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "120.6243606060378269317453362",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.2443483261420288434460567948"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "146.7979865",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "66919312253.235143625"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "53535449802.58811490"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "44612874835.49009575"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "38239607001.84865350"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "33459656126.6175718125"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "26767724901.29405745"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "22306437417.745047875"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "17845149934.19603830"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "13383862450.647028725"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "4.526242424242",
|
"profit": "41266646408.89886"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "5.715848484848",
|
"profit": "52112519887.965126"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "6.814483870968",
|
"profit": "62128995755.12122"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池33家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "4.526242424242",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000001524887662943946861931931281",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "20.13811710831301559773748996",
|
"profit_max": "41266646408.89886",
|
"profit_mean": "41266646408.89886",
|
"profit_median": "41266646408.89886",
|
"profit_min": "41266646408.89886"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "5.715848484848",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000001928289021832673177129157993",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "15.94688876754295654410284565",
|
"profit_max": "52112519887.965126",
|
"profit_mean": "52112519887.965126",
|
"profit_median": "52112519887.965126",
|
"profit_min": "52112519887.965126"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "6.814483870968",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000006104911167322954947838221523",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "13.37592130613585467923149133",
|
"profit_max": "62128995755.12122",
|
"profit_mean": "62128995755.12122",
|
"profit_median": "62128995755.12122",
|
"profit_min": "62128995755.12122"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "002594.SZ",
|
"company": "比亚迪",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.812915911458044327631895279",
|
"annual_fcf": "-97672309000.0",
|
"book_value_per_share": "27.41157326231528251411759333",
|
"current_fcf": "-19272285000.0",
|
"deduct_pe": "32.68995356516001125025322904",
|
"diluted_shares": "9117197565.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "858045409049.750",
|
"market_cap": "831032558049.750",
|
"normalized_eps": "2.788318429951671229359830155",
|
"normalized_pe": "32.68995356516001125025322904",
|
"normalized_profit": "25421650000.0",
|
"pb": "3.325237815711608485400751224",
|
"price": "91.15",
|
"ps": "1.060220640506975657001793287",
|
"reported_pe": "30.16606724271131427861202904",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "27548588000.0",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "25421650000.0",
|
"ttm_eps": "3.021607001887975430748494480",
|
"ttm_revenue": "783829824000.0"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-2126938000.0",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.5575",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05301103202534878285008966436",
|
"implied_profit": "41551627902.4875",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.646",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04240882562027902628007173149",
|
"implied_profit": "33241302321.990",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.038333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03534068801689918856672644291",
|
"implied_profit": "27701085268.325",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.604285714285714285714285714",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03029201830019930448576552249",
|
"implied_profit": "23743787372.850",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.27875",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02650551601267439142504483218",
|
"implied_profit": "20775813951.24375",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.823",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02120441281013951314003586574",
|
"implied_profit": "16620651160.995",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.519166666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01767034400844959428336322145",
|
"implied_profit": "13850542634.1625",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.215333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01413627520675967542669057716",
|
"implied_profit": "11080434107.330",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9115",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01060220640506975657001793287",
|
"implied_profit": "8310325580.4975",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.06979900103858028",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.19636844324204628",
|
"equity_value_high": "578764715884.74",
|
"equity_value_low": "278549863260.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "63.48054999998675579868275016",
|
"price_low": "30.55213636362611826323849109",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3035595172793553944192786598",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6648147409366306279403347110"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与33家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.12814725580468544",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.03906720264831243",
|
"equity_value_high": "1518612587847.36",
|
"equity_value_low": "680899665746.74",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "166.5657212120926547016204754",
|
"price_low": "74.68299999998299916187019690",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.827380375338372514554256450",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.1806582556227866246640680538"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.29182565615689793",
|
"cagr_low": "0.14985831040685316",
|
"equity_value_high": "2989768532324.85",
|
"equity_value_low": "1670473846632.32",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "327.9262636363468997614071117",
|
"price_low": "183.2222933333264891249507545",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "2.597655113947854084052738472",
|
"upside_to_low": "1.010118412872479310202421882"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
