{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "7.72199999999796937002002529",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-1.394457394458024120301859440"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "29.7783299",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1466457709.856666395"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1173166167.885333116"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "977638473.2377775966666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "837975834.2038093685714285714"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "733228854.9283331975"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "586583083.942666558"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "488819236.6188887983333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "391055389.2951110386666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "293291541.971333279"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.195",
|
"profit": "192058624.095"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.2475",
|
"profit": "243766715.1975"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.3125",
|
"profit": "307786256.5625"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池4家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.195",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "94.82051282051282051282051282",
|
"profit_max": "192058624.095",
|
"profit_mean": "192058624.095",
|
"profit_median": "192058624.095",
|
"profit_min": "192058624.095"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.2475",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "74.70707070707070707070707071",
|
"profit_max": "243766715.1975",
|
"profit_mean": "243766715.1975",
|
"profit_median": "243766715.1975",
|
"profit_min": "243766715.1975"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.3125",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "59.168",
|
"profit_max": "307786256.5625",
|
"profit_mean": "307786256.5625",
|
"profit_median": "307786256.5625",
|
"profit_min": "307786256.5625"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "002389.SZ",
|
"company": "航天彩虹",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-9.685627685972750955878836770",
|
"annual_fcf": "-484759170.33",
|
"book_value_per_share": "8.236764862107975599678056207",
|
"current_fcf": "-274211516.70",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "984916021.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "17166549318.360",
|
"market_cap": "18211097228.290",
|
"normalized_eps": "-0.09439981498686578883459953384",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-92975890.16000002",
|
"pb": "2.244813383596820094430517316",
|
"price": "18.49",
|
"ps": "6.093338300209716221284543830",
|
"reported_pe": "114.6004507990662966699786085",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "158909472.88",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-92975890.16",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.1613431698660529759013839821",
|
"ttm_revenue": "2988689669.12"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-251885363.04000002",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 2
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9245",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3046669150104858110642271915",
|
"implied_profit": "910554861.4145",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7396",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2437335320083886488513817532",
|
"implied_profit": "728443889.1316",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.6163333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2031112766736572073761514610",
|
"implied_profit": "607036574.2763333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5282857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1740953800059918920367012523",
|
"implied_profit": "520317063.6654285714285714286",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.46225",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1523334575052429055321135957",
|
"implied_profit": "455277430.70725",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3698",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1218667660041943244256908766",
|
"implied_profit": "364221944.5658",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3081666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1015556383368286036880757305",
|
"implied_profit": "303518287.1381666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2465333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08124451066946288295046058439",
|
"implied_profit": "242814629.7105333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1849",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06093338300209716221284543830",
|
"implied_profit": "182110972.2829",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2645628340623919",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3635759558594661",
|
"equity_value_high": "3917995931.52",
|
"equity_value_low": "1901380378.48",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "3.977999999981724330180227620",
|
"price_low": "1.930499999938573443105765055",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7848566792870890032352499935",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8955922120098121447752425606"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与4家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.10255600574062096",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.24026560503666028",
|
"equity_value_high": "10601636050.08",
|
"equity_value_low": "4609406978.24",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "10.76400000003655133963954476",
|
"price_low": "4.679999999959387400400505821",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.4178474851251189107820689692",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7468902109270206922444291065"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.019923002409502732",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.08528480691385265",
|
"equity_value_high": "20098935011.35",
|
"equity_value_low": "11661799655.04",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "20.40674999980531335066992478",
|
"price_low": "11.84039999999147135408410622",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.103664142769351722588962941",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.3596322336402665573778201071"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
