{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "8.925",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-2.105882352941176470588235294"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "44.6433372",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "271610063.52480000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "217288050.81984000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "181073375.68320000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "155205750.58560000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "135805031.76240000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "108644025.40992000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "90536687.84160000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "72429350.27328000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "54322012.70496000"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.17",
|
"profit": "20685600.0"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.25",
|
"profit": "30420000.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.33",
|
"profit": "40154400.0"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池1家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.17",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "163.0588235294117647058823529",
|
"profit_max": "20685600.0",
|
"profit_mean": "20685600.0",
|
"profit_median": "20685600.0",
|
"profit_min": "20685600.0"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.25",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "110.88",
|
"profit_max": "30420000.0",
|
"profit_mean": "30420000.0",
|
"profit_median": "30420000.0",
|
"profit_min": "30420000.0"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.33",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "84.00",
|
"profit_max": "40154400.0",
|
"profit_mean": "40154400.0",
|
"profit_median": "40154400.0",
|
"profit_min": "40154400.0"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "688716.SH",
|
"company": "中研股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-3.174237203387715496519894543",
|
"annual_fcf": "-151836077.85",
|
"book_value_per_share": "9.691050795036160420775805391",
|
"current_fcf": "-51465246.35",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "121680000.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "2905425602.660000005",
|
"market_cap": "3372969600.000",
|
"normalized_eps": "-0.04389110305719921104536489152",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-5340669.42",
|
"pb": "2.860370932551341330938102944",
|
"price": "27.72",
|
"ps": "10.87055709057559403678054035",
|
"reported_pe": "2421.528818610012269788195013",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "1392909.13",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-5340669.42",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.01144731369165023011176857331",
|
"ttm_revenue": "310284888.98"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-6733578.55",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 2
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.386",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5435278545287797018390270176",
|
"implied_profit": "168648480.000",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.1088",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4348222836230237614712216141",
|
"implied_profit": "134918784.000",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.924",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3623519030191864678926846784",
|
"implied_profit": "112432320.000",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.792",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3105873454450169724794440101",
|
"implied_profit": "96370560.000",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.693",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2717639272643898509195135088",
|
"implied_profit": "84324240.000",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5544",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2174111418115118807356108071",
|
"implied_profit": "67459392.000",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.462",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1811759515095932339463423392",
|
"implied_profit": "56216160.000",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3696",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1449407612076745871570738714",
|
"implied_profit": "44972928.000",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2772",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1087055709057559403678054035",
|
"implied_profit": "33729696.000",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.31001575350479704",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.41418344091760206",
|
"equity_value_high": "527482800.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "232713000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "4.335",
|
"price_low": "1.9125",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8436147186147186147186147186",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9310064935064935064935064935"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与1家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.14386275311224395",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.28722018912738934",
|
"equity_value_high": "1551420000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "620568000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "12.75",
|
"price_low": "5.1",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.5400432900432900432900432900",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8160173160173160173160173160"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.01820111631321386",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1273864975361534",
|
"equity_value_high": "3076983000.0",
|
"equity_value_low": "1706562000.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "25.2875",
|
"price_low": "14.025",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.0877525252525252525252525253",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.4940476190476190476190476190"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
