{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "1.832909528662882341196228467",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-28.62503012334283128557653011"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "87.450693",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "292438991794.38506805"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "233951193435.50805444"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "194959327862.9233787"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "167107995311.0771817428571429"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "146219495897.192534025"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "116975596717.75402722"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "97479663931.46168935"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "77983731145.16935148"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "58487798358.87701361"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "2.115",
|
"profit": "141453074052.855"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "3.60275",
|
"profit": "240955112313.91174"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "5.33975",
|
"profit": "357127211429.66077"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池2家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260805",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.115",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "25.67375886524822695035460993",
|
"profit_max": "141453074052.855",
|
"profit_mean": "141453074052.855",
|
"profit_median": "141453074052.855",
|
"profit_min": "141453074052.855"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.60275",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000004150150583637416287845194685",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "15.07182013739504607689452971",
|
"profit_max": "240955112313.91174",
|
"profit_mean": "240955112313.91174",
|
"profit_median": "240955112313.91174",
|
"profit_min": "240955112313.91174"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "5.33975",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000005600245335530577301618788712",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "10.16901540334285256033836468",
|
"profit_max": "357127211429.66077",
|
"profit_mean": "357127211429.66077",
|
"profit_median": "357127211429.66077",
|
"profit_min": "357127211429.66077"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"code": "688825.SH",
|
"company": "长鑫科技集团股份有限公司",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-07-24",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所科创板",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "19.47869459900715735439160551",
|
"annual_fcf": "-13219390090.12",
|
"book_value_per_share": "1.221939685775254894130818978",
|
"current_fcf": "33172322535.97",
|
"deduct_pe": "109.8901113465660810924576206",
|
"diluted_shares": "66880886077.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "3778228741495.98",
|
"market_cap": "3631632113981.10",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.4941299934509239381828592516",
|
"normalized_pe": "109.8901113465660810924576206",
|
"normalized_profit": "33047851799.22",
|
"pb": "44.43754518501424692836479516",
|
"price": "54.3",
|
"ps": "34.13259404011228811764530641",
|
"reported_pe": "128.7999213425800514254607957",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "28195918725.15",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "33047851799.22",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.4215841083906696997692051077",
|
"ttm_revenue": "106397776556.72"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "4851933074.07",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.715",
|
"implied_margin": "1.706629702005614405882265321",
|
"implied_profit": "181581605699.055",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.172",
|
"implied_margin": "1.365303761604491524705812257",
|
"implied_profit": "145265284559.244",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.81",
|
"implied_margin": "1.137753134670409603921510214",
|
"implied_profit": "121054403799.37",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.551428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9752169725746368033612944685",
|
"implied_profit": "103760917542.3171428571428571",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.3575",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8533148510028072029411326603",
|
"implied_profit": "90790802849.5275",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.086",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6826518808022457623529061283",
|
"implied_profit": "72632642279.622",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.905",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5688765673352048019607551069",
|
"implied_profit": "60527201899.685",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.724",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4551012538681638415686040855",
|
"implied_profit": "48421761519.748",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.543",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3413259404011228811764530641",
|
"implied_profit": "36316321139.811",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "行业供需和价格继续承压，账面资产需要更大折价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.514391547709435",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.5522166042604728",
|
"equity_value_high": "98069290700.76",
|
"equity_value_low": "65379527133.84",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "1.466327622930305872956982774",
|
"price_low": "0.9775517486202039153046551824",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9729958080491656376987664314",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9819972053661104251325109543"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "亏损逐步收窄并保持正常产能利用率，以归母净资产倍数作为主锚。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.4733713416358779",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.514391547709435",
|
"equity_value_high": "147103936051.14",
|
"equity_value_low": "98069290700.76",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "2.199491434395458809435474160",
|
"price_low": "1.466327622930305872956982774",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9594937120737484565481496472",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9729958080491656376987664314"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "行业供需修复、产能利用率和盈利显著改善。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.4376094819932985",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4733713416358779",
|
"equity_value_high": "204311022293.25",
|
"equity_value_low": "147103936051.14",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "3.054849214438137235327047445",
|
"price_low": "2.199491434395458809435474160",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9437412667690950785390967321",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9594937120737484565481496472"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
