{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "10.56000000002066545977419536",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-2.058712121206135445804769966"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "52.019473",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "2517218274.76376345"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2013774619.81101076"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1678145516.509175633333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1438410442.722150542857142857"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1258609137.381881725"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1006887309.90550538"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "839072758.2545878166666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "671258206.6036702533333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "503443654.95275269"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.213333333333",
|
"profit": "206463669.97301075"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.303333333333",
|
"profit": "293565530.74301076"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.41",
|
"profit": "396797365.72999996"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池3家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.213333333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007822683769067596095304842823",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "151.4062500002365604215932255",
|
"profit_max": "206463669.97301075",
|
"profit_mean": "206463669.97301075",
|
"profit_median": "206463669.97301075",
|
"profit_min": "206463669.97301075"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.303333333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000008908062173993022797922466906",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "106.4835164836334888841443812",
|
"profit_max": "293565530.74301076",
|
"profit_mean": "293565530.74301076",
|
"profit_median": "293565530.74301076",
|
"profit_min": "293565530.74301076"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.41",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001008071208497334799891612022",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "78.78048780487805672212195963",
|
"profit_max": "396797365.72999996",
|
"profit_mean": "396797365.72999996",
|
"profit_median": "396797365.72999996",
|
"profit_min": "396797365.72999996"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "002747.SZ",
|
"company": "埃斯顿",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-30",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "11.26323174516358222653357289",
|
"annual_fcf": "194078210.56",
|
"book_value_per_share": "3.345518632235300752232138565",
|
"current_fcf": "-178547667.27",
|
"deduct_pe": "1391.070104583122601793720996",
|
"diluted_shares": "967798453.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "32836988423.59",
|
"market_cap": "31259890031.90",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.02321953429491584442530618511",
|
"normalized_pe": "1391.070104583123220822141727",
|
"normalized_profit": "22471829.37",
|
"pb": "9.654706355175438859145116388",
|
"price": "32.3",
|
"ps": "6.431499762791695277570133529",
|
"reported_pe": "240.1302003977486999501868350",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "130178919.52",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "22471829.37000001",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.1345103612394387656662228618",
|
"ttm_revenue": "4860435541.45"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-107707090.15",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.615",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3215749881395847638785066765",
|
"implied_profit": "1562994501.595",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.292",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2572599905116678111028053412",
|
"implied_profit": "1250395601.276",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.076666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2143833254263898425856711177",
|
"implied_profit": "1041996334.396666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9228571428571428571428571429",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1837571360797627222162895294",
|
"implied_profit": "893139715.1971428571428571429",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8075",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1607874940697923819392533382",
|
"implied_profit": "781497250.7975",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.646",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1286299952558339055514026706",
|
"implied_profit": "625197800.638",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5383333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1071916627131949212928355588",
|
"implied_profit": "520998167.1983333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4306666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08575333017055593703426844706",
|
"implied_profit": "416798533.7586666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.323",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06431499762791695277570133529",
|
"implied_profit": "312598900.319",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2997078219910939",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.40543170926313743",
|
"equity_value_high": "5264823584.40",
|
"equity_value_low": "2322716287.25",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "5.440000000082661839096781445",
|
"price_low": "2.400000000051663649435488403",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8315789473658618625666631132",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9256965944256450882527712569"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与3家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.14544295762220305",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2765717061937153",
|
"equity_value_high": "14245993228.20",
|
"equity_value_low": "6193910099.20",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "14.72000000004133091954839072",
|
"price_low": "6.4",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.5442724458191538415000498229",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8018575851393188854489164087"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.020013259200939992",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.12899711288473692",
|
"equity_value_high": "28254553236.10",
|
"equity_value_low": "15670592551.20",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "29.19466666692429606518496884",
|
"price_low": "16.19200000023145314947098805",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.0961403508692168400871526675",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.4986996903953110480039941780"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
