{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "8.65216052742462145311036051",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.2632682860373828550343275372"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "17.6028743",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "2062071312.072685595"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1649657049.658148476"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1374714208.048457063333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1178326464.041534625714285714"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1031035656.0363427975"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "824828524.829074238"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "687357104.0242285316666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "549885683.2193828253333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "412414262.414537119"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.505555555556",
|
"profit": "1184456117.7954857"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.753333333333",
|
"profit": "1764969775.5258858"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.01125",
|
"profit": "2369237635.62125"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池9家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260805",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.505555555556",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000002072512407271687902425511522",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "21.61978021976121382809921103",
|
"profit_max": "1184456117.7954857",
|
"profit_mean": "1184456117.7954857",
|
"profit_median": "1184456117.7954857",
|
"profit_min": "1184456117.7954857"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.753333333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000005292498562598189625887050088",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "14.50884955752854297086161499",
|
"profit_max": "1764969775.5258858",
|
"profit_mean": "1764969775.5258858",
|
"profit_median": "1764969775.5258858",
|
"profit_min": "1764969775.5258858"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.01125",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "10.80840543881334981458590853",
|
"profit_max": "2369237635.62125",
|
"profit_mean": "2369237635.62125",
|
"profit_median": "2369237635.62125",
|
"profit_min": "2369237635.62125"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"code": "601865.SH",
|
"company": "福莱特",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "2.968785190448503045193558119",
|
"annual_fcf": "31576174.82",
|
"book_value_per_share": "9.613511697138468281233733897",
|
"current_fcf": "-122870260.69",
|
"deduct_pe": "26.64945306153547633585131874",
|
"diluted_shares": "2342880233.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "36101502445.270",
|
"market_cap": "25607680946.690",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.4101397493885466829153105924",
|
"normalized_pe": "26.64945306153548021855623817",
|
"normalized_profit": "960908311.60999986",
|
"pb": "1.136941457433644569530894784",
|
"price": "10.93",
|
"ps": "1.689038686038646254964208226",
|
"reported_pe": "28.06036770647865388673594126",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "912592493.96",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "960908311.61",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3895173475391219453768809018",
|
"ttm_revenue": "15161097941.90"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "48315817.64999986",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5465",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08445193430193231274821041132",
|
"implied_profit": "1280384047.3345",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4372",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06756154744154585019856832906",
|
"implied_profit": "1024307237.8676",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3643333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05630128953462154183214027422",
|
"implied_profit": "853589364.8896666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3122857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04825824817253275014183452075",
|
"implied_profit": "731648027.0482857142857142857",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.27325",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04222596715096615637410520566",
|
"implied_profit": "640192023.66725",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2186",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03378077372077292509928416453",
|
"implied_profit": "512153618.9338",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1821666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02815064476731077091607013711",
|
"implied_profit": "426794682.4448333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1457333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02252051581384861673285610969",
|
"implied_profit": "341435745.9558666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1093",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01689038686038646254964208226",
|
"implied_profit": "256076809.4669",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "行业供需和价格继续承压，账面资产需要更大折价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.09244701942775091",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.188545117586571",
|
"equity_value_high": "15766314567.458",
|
"equity_value_low": "9009322609.976",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "6.729458187996927796863613728",
|
"price_low": "3.845404678855387312493493559",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3843130660570056910463299425",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6481788948897175377407599672"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "亏损逐步收窄并保持正常产能利用率，以归母净资产倍数作为主锚。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.006584535317707529",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.09244701942775091",
|
"equity_value_high": "24775637177.434",
|
"equity_value_low": "15766314567.458",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "10.57486286685231510935710729",
|
"price_low": "6.729458187996927796863613728",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.0324919609467232287870899094",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.3843130660570056910463299425"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "行业供需修复、产能利用率和盈利显著改善。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.07072113657980816",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.006584535317707529",
|
"equity_value_high": "36037290439.904",
|
"equity_value_low": "24775637177.434",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "15.38161871542154924997397424",
|
"price_low": "10.57486286685231510935710729",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.407284420441129849036960132",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.0324919609467232287870899094"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
