{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "15.99",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.2595372107567229518449030644"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "19.0684384",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "615577483.32566992"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "492461986.660535936"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "410384988.8837799466666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "351758561.9003828114285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "307788741.66283496"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "246230993.330267968"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "205192494.4418899733333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "164153995.5535119786666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "123115496.665133984"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.6",
|
"profit": "387390390.59999996"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.74",
|
"profit": "477781481.74"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.86",
|
"profit": "555259559.86"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池3家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260805",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.6",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001032550134711575990501622392",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "19.73333333333333537089893250",
|
"profit_max": "387390390.59999996",
|
"profit_mean": "387390390.59999996",
|
"profit_median": "387390390.59999996",
|
"profit_min": "387390390.59999996"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.74",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "16.0",
|
"profit_max": "477781481.74",
|
"profit_mean": "477781481.74",
|
"profit_median": "477781481.74",
|
"profit_min": "477781481.74"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.86",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "13.76744186046511627906976744",
|
"profit_max": "555259559.86",
|
"profit_mean": "555259559.86",
|
"profit_median": "555259559.86",
|
"profit_min": "555259559.86"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"code": "603166.SH",
|
"company": "福达股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-30",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.323235367602999904952440031",
|
"annual_fcf": "-56599647.63",
|
"book_value_per_share": "4.234251968221123965071321519",
|
"current_fcf": "-86975333.78",
|
"deduct_pe": "25.86227218659341678033734230",
|
"diluted_shares": "645650651.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "8453232388.420",
|
"market_cap": "7644503707.840",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.4578097359186275644288012961",
|
"normalized_pe": "25.86227218659341940519232916",
|
"normalized_profit": "295585154.02999997",
|
"pb": "2.796243607811126729370741677",
|
"price": "11.84",
|
"ps": "3.783032511453092625276693268",
|
"reported_pe": "23.40723604164815690247445054",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "326587201.25",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "295585154.03",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.5058264879686460658428113317",
|
"ttm_revenue": "2020734340.69"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-31002047.22000003",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.592",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1891516255726546312638346634",
|
"implied_profit": "382225185.392",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4736",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1513213004581237050110677307",
|
"implied_profit": "305780148.3136",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3946666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1261010837151030875092231089",
|
"implied_profit": "254816790.2613333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3382857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1080866431843740750079055219",
|
"implied_profit": "218414391.6525714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.296",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09457581278632731563191733170",
|
"implied_profit": "191112592.696",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2368",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07566065022906185250553386536",
|
"implied_profit": "152890074.1568",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1973333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06305054185755154375461155449",
|
"implied_profit": "127408395.1306666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1578666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05044043348604123500368924356",
|
"implied_profit": "101926716.1045333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1184",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03783032511453092625276693268",
|
"implied_profit": "76445037.0784",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.06601374801203441",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.19309823735714438",
|
"equity_value_high": "5433150228.22",
|
"equity_value_low": "2614885136.55",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "8.415000000085185386113705010",
|
"price_low": "4.05",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2892736486414539369836397796",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6579391891891891891891891892"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与3家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.13273800857430285",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.035156893175703696",
|
"equity_value_high": "14255966374.08",
|
"equity_value_low": "6391941444.90",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "22.08",
|
"price_low": "9.9",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.864864864864864864864864865",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.1638513513513513513513513514"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.29708246299677876",
|
"cagr_low": "0.1545374116469651",
|
"equity_value_high": "28066433799.15",
|
"equity_value_low": "15681563011.52",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "43.47000000027878853637212549",
|
"price_low": "24.28800000004956240646615564",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "2.671452702726249031788186274",
|
"upside_to_low": "1.051351351355537365410992875"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
