{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "4.820959001663011282076206898",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-5.948824909824793319708628029"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "53.952085",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1953681609.8107000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1562945287.8485600"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1302454406.540466666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1116389491.3204000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "976840804.9053500"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "781472643.9242800"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "651227203.2702333333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "520981762.6161866666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "390736321.9621400"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
|
"detail": [],
|
"summary": {}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "601606.SH",
|
"company": "长城军工",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-25",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-8.801285656947986405373580936",
|
"annual_fcf": "-244766951.25",
|
"book_value_per_share": "3.013099376039382051297629311",
|
"current_fcf": "-89471657.32",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "724228400.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "24373536315.20",
|
"market_cap": "24261651400.00",
|
"normalized_eps": "-0.01627386348008447749356418500",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-11785994.110000013",
|
"pb": "11.11811985571966931153380485",
|
"price": "33.5",
|
"ps": "15.41441146494563430826393283",
|
"reported_pe": "3503.061144338939581819597622",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "6925842.97",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-11785994.11",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.009563064593987200722865880432",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1573958983.46"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-18711837.080000013",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 1,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "补充法定披露、行情接口或机构预测汇总页来源。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-CORE-SOURCE-MISSING",
|
"message": "核心字段没有由注册表中允许承载核心数字的来源支持。",
|
"recalc_scope": "institutions",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "不得以公司业绩预告或自有情景冒充机构预期。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-NONE",
|
"message": "估值日没有可用机构盈利预测，已明确记录为空。",
|
"recalc_scope": "机构预期模块",
|
"severity": "INFO"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 3
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.675",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7707205732472817154131966417",
|
"implied_profit": "1213082570.00",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.34",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6165764585978253723305573133",
|
"implied_profit": "970466056.00",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.116666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5138137154981878102754644278",
|
"implied_profit": "808721713.3333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.9571428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4404117561413038373789695095",
|
"implied_profit": "693190040.00",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8375",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3853602866236408577065983208",
|
"implied_profit": "606541285.00",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.67",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3082882292989126861652786567",
|
"implied_profit": "485233028.00",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5583333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2569068577490939051377322139",
|
"implied_profit": "404360856.6666666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4466666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2055254861992751241101857711",
|
"implied_profit": "323488685.3333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.335",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1541441146494563430826393283",
|
"implied_profit": "242616514.00",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "盈利尚未稳定，按归母净资产折价并要求现金消耗受控。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.3593365045499035",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.40923912224792813",
|
"equity_value_high": "2618606568.180",
|
"equity_value_low": "1745737712.120",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "3.615719251247258461557155174",
|
"price_low": "2.410479500831505641038103449",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8920680820523206429385923829",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9280453880348804286257282552"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "业务逐步接近盈亏平衡，按归母净资产的中性倍数定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2904226750916692",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3593365045499035",
|
"equity_value_high": "4364344280.300",
|
"equity_value_low": "2618606568.180",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "6.026198752078764102595258623",
|
"price_low": "3.615719251247258461557155174",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8201134700872010715643206381",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8920680820523206429385923829"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "新业务放量并形成可持续盈利，给予成长型资产溢价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.23048342165493763",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2904226750916692",
|
"equity_value_high": "6546516420.450",
|
"equity_value_low": "4364344280.300",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "9.039298128118146153892887934",
|
"price_low": "6.026198752078764102595258623",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.7301702051308016073464809572",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8201134700872010715643206381"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
