{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "48.96937499965960610109078276",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.5479062169065236759161951345"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "122.076658",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "683645124.2463755"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "546916099.3971004"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "455763416.1642503333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "390654356.7122145714285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "341822562.12318775"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "273458049.6985502"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "227881708.0821251666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "182305366.4657001333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "136729024.8492751"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.8375",
|
"profit": "205804768.3125"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "2.2",
|
"profit": "246405709.00000003"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "2.523333333333",
|
"profit": "282619881.383296"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池4家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260805",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.8375",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "41.25170068027210884353741497",
|
"profit_max": "205804768.3125",
|
"profit_mean": "205804768.3125",
|
"profit_median": "205804768.3125",
|
"profit_min": "205804768.3125"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.2",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001217504258393623353405631719",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "34.45454545454545035059896426",
|
"profit_max": "246405709.00000003",
|
"profit_mean": "246405709.00000003",
|
"profit_median": "246405709.00000003",
|
"profit_min": "246405709.00000003"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.523333333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000000000000000003060648089462842247468253721",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "30.03963011889432482617272375",
|
"profit_max": "282619881.383296",
|
"profit_mean": "282619881.383296",
|
"profit_median": "282619881.383296",
|
"profit_min": "282619881.383296"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"code": "300969.SZ",
|
"company": "恒帅股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-29",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.209308715642191713234432600",
|
"annual_fcf": "129211404.02",
|
"book_value_per_share": "12.97483990625395777660330102",
|
"current_fcf": "47060268.58",
|
"deduct_pe": "58.73843159111127644795780650",
|
"diluted_shares": "112002595.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "7830320786.65",
|
"market_cap": "8489796701.00",
|
"normalized_eps": "1.290466870611346263896832033",
|
"normalized_pe": "58.73843159111126913286388713",
|
"normalized_profit": "144535638.270000018",
|
"pb": "5.842075936787775220534249391",
|
"price": "75.8",
|
"ps": "8.634786145785002720492404578",
|
"reported_pe": "51.44982392814451165983124147",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "165011190.57",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "144535638.27",
|
"ttm_eps": "1.473280066144896017811015897",
|
"ttm_revenue": "983208681.45"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-20475552.299999982",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.79",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4317393072892501360246202289",
|
"implied_profit": "424489835.05",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.032",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3453914458314001088196961831",
|
"implied_profit": "339591868.04",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.526666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2878262048595000906830801526",
|
"implied_profit": "282993223.3666666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.165714285714285714285714286",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2467081755938572205854972736",
|
"implied_profit": "242565620.0285714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.895",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2158696536446250680123101145",
|
"implied_profit": "212244917.525",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.516",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1726957229157000544098480916",
|
"implied_profit": "169795934.02",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.263333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1439131024297500453415400763",
|
"implied_profit": "141496611.6833333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.010666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1151304819438000362732320611",
|
"implied_profit": "113197289.3466666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.758",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08634786145785002720492404578",
|
"implied_profit": "84897967.01",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.19407950100718774",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.30373849743202275",
|
"equity_value_high": "2886411875.6",
|
"equity_value_low": "1389182186.10",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "25.77093750015345626590169630",
|
"price_low": "12.40312499991629658223543838",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6600140171483712893680515",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8363703825868562456169467232"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与4家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.02258006565247328",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.16745365743577167",
|
"equity_value_high": "7573615473.92",
|
"equity_value_low": "3395778677.06",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "67.62000000017856729123106478",
|
"price_low": "30.31874999914064491095050075",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.1079155672799661307225453195",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6000164907765086423357453727"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.11922990684901213",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.003769739732606192",
|
"equity_value_high": "14910555464.10",
|
"equity_value_low": "8330977021.44",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "133.1268749987444487335315758",
|
"price_low": "74.38200000133925468423298585",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.756291226896364759017566963",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.01870712399288582210774425"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
