{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "230.1827124996852868547847488",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "0.2122344982781974986121560330"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "292.0337783",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "4180933374.908717955"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "3344746699.926974364"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "2787288916.60581197"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "2389104785.662124545714285714"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "2090466687.4543589775"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1672373349.963487182"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1393644458.302905985"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "1114915566.642324788"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "836186674.981743591"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "8.63725",
|
"profit": "2473122595.79325"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "11.04265",
|
"profit": "3161866014.34905"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "13.654105263158",
|
"profit": "3909609684.987188"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池21家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "8.63725",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "20.99395062085733306318562042",
|
"profit_max": "2473122595.79325",
|
"profit_mean": "2473122595.79325",
|
"profit_median": "2473122595.79325",
|
"profit_min": "2473122595.79325"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "11.04265",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "16.42087723508396988041819672",
|
"profit_max": "3161866014.34905",
|
"profit_mean": "3161866014.34905",
|
"profit_median": "3161866014.34905",
|
"profit_min": "3161866014.34905"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "13.654105263158",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.000000000000000008943603791004673002740004178",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "13.28025502258805321824585109",
|
"profit_max": "3909609684.987188",
|
"profit_mean": "3909609684.987188",
|
"profit_median": "3909609684.987188",
|
"profit_min": "3909609684.987188"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "002850.SZ",
|
"company": "科达利",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "1.077802020317657714269115553",
|
"annual_fcf": "1146087595.71",
|
"book_value_per_share": "48.46943233837110804350850167",
|
"current_fcf": "-315342549.72",
|
"deduct_pe": "28.39935313453012221514333482",
|
"diluted_shares": "286332177.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "49513245664.630",
|
"market_cap": "51920613655.410",
|
"normalized_eps": "6.385004585879985549091815832",
|
"normalized_pe": "28.39935313453012651799969311",
|
"normalized_profit": "1828232263.229999723",
|
"pb": "3.741120769356505352657243386",
|
"price": "181.33",
|
"ps": "3.178760019166837451524496435",
|
"reported_pe": "28.25066274113459013653367220",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "1837854712.69",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "1828232263.23",
|
"ttm_eps": "6.418610482223239618647540266",
|
"ttm_revenue": "16333605979.17"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-9622449.460000277",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "9.0665",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1589380009583418725762248217",
|
"implied_profit": "2596030682.7705",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "7.2532",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1271504007666734980609798574",
|
"implied_profit": "2076824546.2164",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.044333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1059586673055612483841498812",
|
"implied_profit": "1730687121.847",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "5.180857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09082171483333821290069989816",
|
"implied_profit": "1483446104.440285714285714286",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.53325",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07946900047917093628811241087",
|
"implied_profit": "1298015341.38525",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.6266",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06357520038333674903048992870",
|
"implied_profit": "1038412273.1082",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.022166666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05297933365278062419207494058",
|
"implied_profit": "865343560.9235",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.417733333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04238346692222449935365995246",
|
"implied_profit": "692274848.7388",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.8133",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03178760019166837451524496435",
|
"implied_profit": "519206136.5541",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.07750984556927953",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.20303009808953543",
|
"equity_value_high": "34685544406.04",
|
"equity_value_low": "16693577521.65",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "121.1374312501385410135026494",
|
"price_low": "58.30143750015912462398523935",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.3319504149884820988611776904",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6784788093522355670656524604"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与21家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.11879554783257307",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.04703279655089165",
|
"equity_value_high": "91010911525.12",
|
"equity_value_low": "40806522830.48",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "317.8507999997499407829389709",
|
"price_low": "142.5146249996206329266305268",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.752885898636463579015821822",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.2140593117541464019928829934"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.2811171460535389",
|
"cagr_low": "0.14032662997009404",
|
"equity_value_high": "179177732065.35",
|
"equity_value_low": "100112002677.76",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "625.7687625004506566511384433",
|
"price_low": "349.6358800001719680984369423",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "2.450994112945737917890798231",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.928174488502575239058274650"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
