{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "9.88250000007899126817739344",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.4631925120044948715293801139"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "23.2879746",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1621493910.09089286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1297195128.072714288"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1080995940.06059524"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "926567948.6233673485714285714"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "810746955.04544643"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "648597564.036357144"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "540497970.03029762"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "432398376.024238096"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "324298782.018178572"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.335",
|
"profit": "466507258.97"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.485",
|
"profit": "675391106.27"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.6425",
|
"profit": "894719145.935"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池4家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.335",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "43.16417910447761194029850746",
|
"profit_max": "466507258.97",
|
"profit_mean": "466507258.97",
|
"profit_median": "466507258.97",
|
"profit_min": "466507258.97"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.485",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "29.81443298969072164948453608",
|
"profit_max": "675391106.27",
|
"profit_mean": "675391106.27",
|
"profit_median": "675391106.27",
|
"profit_min": "675391106.27"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.6425",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "22.50583657587548638132295720",
|
"profit_max": "894719145.935",
|
"profit_mean": "894719145.935",
|
"profit_median": "894719145.935",
|
"profit_min": "894719145.935"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "000519.SZ",
|
"company": "中兵红箭",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "11.58367461072054396827806814",
|
"annual_fcf": "-384276404.79",
|
"book_value_per_share": "7.473390582288456346332337972",
|
"current_fcf": "510852915.33",
|
"deduct_pe": "93.00498354032410350357934566",
|
"diluted_shares": "1392558982.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "14189826372.95000004",
|
"market_cap": "20136402879.720",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.1554755395847211468418793338",
|
"normalized_pe": "93.00498354032411080621225656",
|
"normalized_profit": "216508859.129999983",
|
"pb": "1.934864749912769376997741626",
|
"price": "14.46",
|
"ps": "1.936741882155308794229042986",
|
"reported_pe": "89.38114465708793972618411796",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "225286921.05",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "216508859.13",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.1617790872501801148125444356",
|
"ttm_revenue": "10397050358.26"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-8778061.920000017",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.723",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09683709410776543971145214931",
|
"implied_profit": "1006820143.986",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5784",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07746967528621235176916171945",
|
"implied_profit": "805456115.1888",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.482",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06455806273851029314096809954",
|
"implied_profit": "671213429.324",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4131428571428571428571428571",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05533548234729453697797265675",
|
"implied_profit": "575325796.5634285714285714286",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.3615",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04841854705388271985572607465",
|
"implied_profit": "503410071.993",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2892",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03873483764310617588458085972",
|
"implied_profit": "402728057.5944",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.241",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03227903136925514657048404977",
|
"implied_profit": "335606714.662",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1928",
|
"implied_margin": "0.02582322509540411725638723982",
|
"implied_profit": "268485371.7296",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1446",
|
"implied_margin": "0.01936741882155308794229042986",
|
"implied_profit": "201364028.7972",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.18066908424687123",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.28439674622448785",
|
"equity_value_high": "7434959439.75",
|
"equity_value_low": "3778708797.72",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "5.339062499939410106795749352",
|
"price_low": "2.713500000045240453592507150",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6307702282199578072755360061",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8123443983371203005814310408"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与4家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.013882922926433894",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1536001899446",
|
"equity_value_high": "18776917173.70",
|
"equity_value_low": "8747011105.75",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "13.48375000011310113398126788",
|
"price_low": "6.281250000044881402373518998",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.0675138312508228814674088603",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5656120331919169154651784925"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.12354048331008194",
|
"cagr_low": "0.0050947784272818986",
|
"equity_value_high": "36051680973.12",
|
"equity_value_low": "20654608891.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "25.88879999994140284106113360",
|
"price_low": "14.83212500007414407672105339",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.790373443979350127320963596",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.025734785620618539192327344"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
