{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "8.261500000060678860424952045",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.2600617321217140821920672031"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "16.7654091",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "490427818.586105565"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "392342254.868884452"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "326951879.05740371"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "280244467.7634888942857142857"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "245213909.2930527825"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "196171127.434442226"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "163475939.528701855"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "130780751.622961484"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "98085563.717221113"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.31",
|
"profit": "181364645.33"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "0.375",
|
"profit": "219392716.125"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "0.425",
|
"profit": "248645078.275"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池2家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260805",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.31",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "33.58064516129032258064516129",
|
"profit_max": "181364645.33",
|
"profit_mean": "181364645.33",
|
"profit_median": "181364645.33",
|
"profit_min": "181364645.33"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.375",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "27.76",
|
"profit_max": "219392716.125",
|
"profit_mean": "219392716.125",
|
"profit_median": "219392716.125",
|
"profit_min": "219392716.125"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "0.425",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "24.49411764705882352941176471",
|
"profit_max": "248645078.275",
|
"profit_mean": "248645078.275",
|
"profit_median": "248645078.275",
|
"profit_min": "248645078.275"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-05",
|
"code": "300258.SZ",
|
"company": "精锻科技",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-21",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "3.666888016469214700085975893",
|
"annual_fcf": "-41751.28",
|
"book_value_per_share": "8.041428152170610263007426906",
|
"current_fcf": "-75772868.94",
|
"deduct_pe": "151.9772016794683337913845462",
|
"diluted_shares": "585047243.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "6458967184.980",
|
"market_cap": "6090341799.630",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.06849711591581675054573327850",
|
"normalized_pe": "151.9772016794682958672899876",
|
"normalized_profit": "40074048.82000001",
|
"pb": "1.294546168044794978576663761",
|
"price": "10.41",
|
"ps": "3.085803627267143932630714339",
|
"reported_pe": "66.70827654854407991202500621",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "91298143.42",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "40074048.82",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.1560526000461812277953081474",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1973664735.44"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-51224094.59999999",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5205",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1542901813633571966315357170",
|
"implied_profit": "304517089.9815",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.4164",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1234321450906857573052285736",
|
"implied_profit": "243613671.9852",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.347",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1028601209089047977543571446",
|
"implied_profit": "203011393.321",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2974285714285714285714285714",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08816581792191839807516326685",
|
"implied_profit": "174009765.7037142857142857143",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.26025",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07714509068167859831576785849",
|
"implied_profit": "152258544.99075",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.2082",
|
"implied_margin": "0.06171607254534287865261428679",
|
"implied_profit": "121806835.9926",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1735",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05143006045445239887717857232",
|
"implied_profit": "101505696.6605",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1388",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04114404836356191910174285786",
|
"implied_profit": "81204557.3284",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.1041",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03085803627267143932630714339",
|
"implied_profit": "60903417.9963",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.1602253379025249",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2744907608347066",
|
"equity_value_high": "2543639150.8",
|
"equity_value_low": "1224211356.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "4.347750000079908076756803040",
|
"price_low": "2.092500000038458432663701998",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.5823487031623527303787893333",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.7989913544631644156903264171"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与2家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.018478244588330472",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.13248102711630494",
|
"equity_value_high": "6674218948.16",
|
"equity_value_low": "2992516648.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "11.40800000002734821878307698",
|
"price_low": "5.115000000094009502066827106",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.095869356390715486914800863",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5086455331321796827985756863"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.16624520409487764",
|
"cagr_low": "0.0380787326119536",
|
"equity_value_high": "13139868554.10",
|
"equity_value_low": "7341640842.88",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "22.45949999990000807507437481",
|
"price_low": "12.54879999986599372796292282",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.157492795379443619123378944",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.205456292014024373483470012"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
