{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "37.60125000012985545030172530",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.4308034972192201686799059819"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "86.645438",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "2668981172.4860284"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2135184937.98882272"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1779320781.657352266666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "1525132098.5634448"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1334490586.2430142"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1067592468.99441136"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "889660390.8286761333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "711728312.6629409066666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "533796234.49720568"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.161428571429",
|
"profit": "715520877.240264"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.438571428571",
|
"profit": "886260176.359736"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "1.622",
|
"profit": "999264949.592"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池7家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.161428571429",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000004170947480261811388911264637",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "46.32226322261513516828048773",
|
"profit_max": "715520877.240264",
|
"profit_mean": "715520877.240264",
|
"profit_median": "715520877.240264",
|
"profit_min": "715520877.240264"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.438571428571",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000003367408442358603684545660263",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "37.39821251242424845639295718",
|
"profit_max": "886260176.359736",
|
"profit_mean": "886260176.359736",
|
"profit_median": "886260176.359736",
|
"profit_min": "886260176.359736"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.622",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "33.16892725030826140567200986",
|
"profit_max": "999264949.592",
|
"profit_mean": "999264949.592",
|
"profit_median": "999264949.592",
|
"profit_min": "999264949.592"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "603650.SH",
|
"company": "彤程新材",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-18",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.6012578744319867529049193086",
|
"annual_fcf": "24861918.13",
|
"book_value_per_share": "7.013267125601367894716369368",
|
"current_fcf": "-174444045.03",
|
"deduct_pe": "59.60909188215948033972274060",
|
"diluted_shares": "616069636.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "36060888152.04",
|
"market_cap": "33144546416.80",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.9025468817132223620902491614",
|
"normalized_pe": "59.60909188215948494951534371",
|
"normalized_profit": "556031728.889999957",
|
"pb": "7.671175079529970362054672824",
|
"price": "53.8",
|
"ps": "9.152084983962699546711814920",
|
"reported_pe": "56.68618504906376484088573265",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "584702364.22",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "556031728.89",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.9490848599783937411906468314",
|
"ttm_revenue": "3621529572.21"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-28670635.330000043",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [],
|
"status": "PASS",
|
"warning_count": 0
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.69",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4576042491981349773355907460",
|
"implied_profit": "1657227320.84",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.152",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3660833993585079818684725968",
|
"implied_profit": "1325781856.672",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.793333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3050694994654233182237271639",
|
"implied_profit": "1104818213.893333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.537142857142857142857142857",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2614881423989342727631947120",
|
"implied_profit": "946987040.48",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.345",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2288021245990674886677953730",
|
"implied_profit": "828613660.42",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.076",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1830416996792539909342362984",
|
"implied_profit": "662890928.336",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8966666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1525347497327116591118635820",
|
"implied_profit": "552409106.9466666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7173333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1220277997861693272894908656",
|
"implied_profit": "441927285.5573333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.538",
|
"implied_margin": "0.09152084983962699546711814920",
|
"implied_profit": "331445464.168",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.17363923299629547",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2944317173521247",
|
"equity_value_high": "12772047658.72",
|
"equity_value_low": "5795719105.68",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "20.73149999997727529619719807",
|
"price_low": "9.407571428629863524064347817",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6146561338294186747918736418",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8251380775347609010396961372"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与7家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.0013952849174700965",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1654693333716808",
|
"equity_value_high": "32913960353.20",
|
"equity_value_low": "13416016448.25",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "53.42571428597399661488916490",
|
"price_low": "21.77678571428571428571428571",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.0069569835320818473068928457",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5952270313329792883696229422"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.1383603462572629",
|
"cagr_low": "0.01782273948740465",
|
"equity_value_high": "63359373679.80",
|
"equity_value_low": "36205356388.40",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "102.8445000003213922394967701",
|
"price_low": "58.76828571437661310092549343",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.911607806697423647574289407",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.092347318111089462842481291"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
