{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "45.74400000008458008126572416",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.1669289961503432373792032628"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "85.9690238",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "4218149751.46613642"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "3374519801.172909136"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "2812099834.310757613333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "2410371286.552077954285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "2109074875.73306821"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1687259900.586454568"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1406049917.155378806666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "1124839933.724303045333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "843629950.293227284"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "2.2872",
|
"profit": "2244471714.3696"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "3.727",
|
"profit": "3657374116.586"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "4.88375",
|
"profit": "4792514312.2825"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池17家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.2872",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "23.33857992305001748863238895",
|
"profit_max": "2244471714.3696",
|
"profit_mean": "2244471714.3696",
|
"profit_median": "2244471714.3696",
|
"profit_min": "2244471714.3696"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.727",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "14.32251140327341024953045345",
|
"profit_max": "3657374116.586",
|
"profit_mean": "3657374116.586",
|
"profit_median": "3657374116.586",
|
"profit_min": "3657374116.586"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "4.88375",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "10.93012541592014333248016381",
|
"profit_max": "4792514312.2825",
|
"profit_mean": "4792514312.2825",
|
"profit_median": "4792514312.2825",
|
"profit_min": "4792514312.2825"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "002812.SZ",
|
"company": "恩捷股份",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-23",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "8.022806920740379178506281631",
|
"annual_fcf": "-591297534.23",
|
"book_value_per_share": "26.06781976048474201930835264",
|
"current_fcf": "3977861.62",
|
"deduct_pe": "152.9130110910308534256516100",
|
"diluted_shares": "981318518.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "65838900067.160",
|
"market_cap": "52382782490.840",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.3490873642415050971248460635",
|
"normalized_pe": "152.9130110910308641386628014",
|
"normalized_profit": "342565894.929999976",
|
"pb": "2.047735502641336989106151232",
|
"price": "53.38",
|
"ps": "3.536559534254825012019986516",
|
"reported_pe": "138.9941209954384498774017740",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "376870490.03",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "342565894.93",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.3840450201613335905681951067",
|
"ttm_revenue": "14811791511.91"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-34304595.100000024",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.669",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1768279767127412506009993258",
|
"implied_profit": "2619139124.542",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.1352",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1414623813701930004807994606",
|
"implied_profit": "2095311299.6336",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.779333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1178853178084941670673328839",
|
"implied_profit": "1746092749.694666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.525142857142857142857142857",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1010445581215664289148567576",
|
"implied_profit": "1496650928.309714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.3345",
|
"implied_margin": "0.08841398835637062530049966290",
|
"implied_profit": "1309569562.271",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.0676",
|
"implied_margin": "0.07073119068509650024039973032",
|
"implied_profit": "1047655649.8168",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8896666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.05894265890424708353366644193",
|
"implied_profit": "873046374.8473333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.7117333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.04715412712339766682693315355",
|
"implied_profit": "698437099.8778666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.5338",
|
"implied_margin": "0.03536559534254825012019986516",
|
"implied_profit": "523827824.9084",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.15256743509936332",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.2805052698716679",
|
"equity_value_high": "22893611486.56",
|
"equity_value_low": "10100122714.70",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "23.32943999998989115173306044",
|
"price_low": "10.29240000003750056615154999",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.5629554140129282287048883395",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8071862120637410909300946049"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与17家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.04258790977512872",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.13579729952232678",
|
"equity_value_high": "64528561788.25",
|
"equity_value_low": "25250306786.70",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "65.75700000012636060333674453",
|
"price_low": "25.73100000004279955919470379",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.231865867368421892156926649",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5179655301603072394305975311"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.19278975059866266",
|
"cagr_low": "0.0626523853300125",
|
"equity_value_high": "126475981104.90",
|
"equity_value_low": "70981417967.00",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "128.8837200001763341838821796",
|
"price_low": "72.33270000006256887939416221",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.414457100040770591680070806",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.355052454103832313214577786"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
