{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "95.82466666698348687016431565",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.2961172140742052903617044088"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "200.025342",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1157480245.7404560"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "925984196.5923648"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "771653497.1603040"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "661417283.2802605714285714286"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "578740122.8702280"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "462992098.2961824"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "385826748.5801520"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "308661398.8641216"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "231496049.1480912"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "2.141333333333",
|
"profit": "247823701.54662806"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "3.235416666667",
|
"profit": "374445641.83337194"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "4.566909090909",
|
"profit": "528543733.905444"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池12家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.141333333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.0000000000000001165344550168710333761439539",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "58.00124533002148889571419066",
|
"profit_max": "247823701.54662806",
|
"profit_mean": "247823701.54662806",
|
"profit_median": "247823701.54662806",
|
"profit_min": "247823701.54662806"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "3.235416666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000007712734980329022141660719665",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "38.38763683193422625890715045",
|
"profit_max": "374445641.83337194",
|
"profit_mean": "374445641.83337194",
|
"profit_median": "374445641.83337194",
|
"profit_min": "374445641.83337194"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "4.566909090909",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000004586186240614199441379653632",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "27.19563659527086667515470360",
|
"profit_max": "528543733.905444",
|
"profit_mean": "528543733.905444",
|
"profit_median": "528543733.905444",
|
"profit_min": "528543733.905444"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "688392.SH",
|
"company": "骄成超声",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-25",
|
"market": "上海证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.6907967991994244491863487388",
|
"annual_fcf": "-46909060.01",
|
"book_value_per_share": "16.04142414693567870145652040",
|
"current_fcf": "-69516456.18",
|
"deduct_pe": "131.1554053069977450778220326",
|
"diluted_shares": "115733360.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "13592631382.80000002",
|
"market_cap": "14374083312.00",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.9469682146098584712307669975",
|
"normalized_pe": "131.1554053069977331106308261",
|
"normalized_profit": "109595813.29000001",
|
"pb": "7.742454713643699077804556676",
|
"price": "124.2",
|
"ps": "17.43077005899363282617920635",
|
"reported_pe": "99.66931331511689548676451303",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "144217741.99",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "109595813.29",
|
"ttm_eps": "1.246120755415724558588811385",
|
"ttm_revenue": "824638456.21"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-34621928.69999999",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "6.21",
|
"implied_margin": "0.8715385029496816413089603177",
|
"implied_profit": "718704165.60",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.968",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6972308023597453130471682541",
|
"implied_profit": "574963332.48",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.14",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5810256686331210942059735451",
|
"implied_profit": "479136110.40",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.548571428571428571428571429",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4980220016855323664622630386",
|
"implied_profit": "410688094.6285714285714285714",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.105",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4357692514748408206544801588",
|
"implied_profit": "359352082.80",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.484",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3486154011798726565235841271",
|
"implied_profit": "287481666.24",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.07",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2905128343165605471029867726",
|
"implied_profit": "239568055.20",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.656",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2324102674532484376823894180",
|
"implied_profit": "191654444.16",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.242",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1743077005899363282617920635",
|
"implied_profit": "143740833.12",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.17391985670878862",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.29783435753967236",
|
"equity_value_high": "5529566340.90",
|
"equity_value_low": "2453454645.4",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "47.77850000120967714062738695",
|
"price_low": "21.19920000076036848839435751",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.6153099838872006671447070294",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8293140096557136192560840780"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与12家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.01747709723146129",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.1466279827566458",
|
"equity_value_high": "15674849122.90",
|
"equity_value_low": "6505372165.60",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "135.4393333339669737403286313",
|
"price_low": "56.21",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.090493827165595601773982539",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.5474235104669887278582930757"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.15795041903458862",
|
"cagr_low": "0.03705831830188977",
|
"equity_value_high": "29924711961.75",
|
"equity_value_low": "17242334035.30",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "258.5659999999135944899551866",
|
"price_low": "148.9832666683141317248544413",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.081851851851156155313648845",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.199543209889807823871613859"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
