{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "83.2468142932498616764797739",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.04448441346602273845398724643"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "140.0338445",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "3524661479.388424925"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "2819729183.51073994"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "2349774319.592283283333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "1762330739.6942124625"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "1409864591.75536997"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "1174887159.796141641666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "939909727.8369133133333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "704932295.877684985"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "ETNet公开明细；评级为买入。盈利预测按0.8612人民币/港元换算，仅利润进入一致预期。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "0.8035299581978634",
|
"profit": "405248490.47840226"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "大和证券（DAIWA）",
|
"report_date": "2026-07-02",
|
"source_id": "SRC-ETNET-CONSENSUS",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
},
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "ETNet公开明细；评级为买入。盈利预测按0.8612人民币/港元换算，仅利润进入一致预期。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "-0.6967022758941013",
|
"profit": "-352995819.78634465"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "招商证券国际",
|
"report_date": "2026-07-02",
|
"source_id": "SRC-ETNET-CONSENSUS",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
},
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "ETNet公开明细；评级为买入。盈利预测按0.8612人民币/港元换算，仅利润进入一致预期。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "-0.41836971667440787",
|
"profit": "-210171853.2280539"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "美国银行证券",
|
"report_date": "2026-07-01",
|
"source_id": "SRC-ETNET-CONSENSUS",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
},
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "ETNet公开明细；评级为增持。盈利预测按0.8612人民币/港元换算，仅利润进入一致预期。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "-0.9289363678588018",
|
"profit": "-466790524.8490479"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "摩根大通",
|
"report_date": "2026-07-02",
|
"source_id": "SRC-ETNET-CONSENSUS",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
},
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "ETNet公开明细；评级为优于大市。盈利预测按0.8612人民币/港元换算，仅利润进入一致预期。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "-0.30190431955411057",
|
"profit": "-152113330.23687878"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "海通国际",
|
"report_date": "2026-05-19",
|
"source_id": "SRC-ETNET-CONSENSUS",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
},
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "ETNet公开明细；评级为买入。盈利预测按0.8612人民币/港元换算，仅利润进入一致预期。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "-0.6839294008360428",
|
"profit": "-311193683.23269856"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "国泰君安国际",
|
"report_date": "2026-04-20",
|
"source_id": "SRC-ETNET-CONSENSUS",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
},
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "ETNet公开明细；评级为买入。盈利预测按0.8612人民币/港元换算，仅利润进入一致预期。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "-0.6653506734788667",
|
"profit": "-334417092.42916864"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "花旗",
|
"report_date": "2026-07-03",
|
"source_id": "SRC-ETNET-CONSENSUS",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "-0.4130946851569239485714285714",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.02336362382195924106299338712",
|
"institution_count": 7,
|
"pe_on_mean": null,
|
"profit_max": "405248490.47840226",
|
"profit_mean": "-203204830.4691128814285714286",
|
"profit_median": "-311193683.23269856",
|
"profit_min": "-466790524.8490479"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "09880.HK",
|
"company": "优必选",
|
"currency": "HKD",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-14",
|
"market": "香港联合交易所主板",
|
"report_period_end": "2025-12-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": null,
|
"annual_fcf": "-1289600557.36182084",
|
"book_value_per_share": "16.64936285864997233529595478",
|
"current_fcf": "-1385433116.58151437",
|
"deduct_pe": null,
|
"diluted_shares": "503401373",
|
"enterprise_value": "39384654398.60638599",
|
"market_cap": "43770749382.35",
|
"normalized_eps": "-1.622015077050154171907671773",
|
"normalized_pe": null,
|
"normalized_profit": "-816524616.8137484",
|
"pb": "5.222422067330113692269936231",
|
"price": "86.95",
|
"ps": "18.83827496569454442969025180",
|
"reported_pe": null,
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "-816524616.8137484",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "-816524616.8137484",
|
"ttm_eps": "-1.622015077050154171907671773",
|
"ttm_revenue": "2323500928.9363680"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "0",
|
"basis": "不制造扣非数据；2025年最新已审计归母亏损直接作为归一化口径",
|
"description": "港股法定报告未披露A股式扣非归母利润，以归母亏损作保守代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "使用正常化情景、PB 或反向估值。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_attributable_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-PROFIT",
|
"message": "TTM 归母利润不为正，报告 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "检查主营盈利恢复条件。",
|
"field": "metrics.ttm_deduct_profit",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-TTM-DEDUCT",
|
"message": "TTM 扣非利润不为正，扣非 PE 不适用。",
|
"recalc_scope": "扣非 PE 模块",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 3
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.3475",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9419137482847272214845125902",
|
"implied_profit": "2188537469.1175",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.478",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7535309986277817771876100722",
|
"implied_profit": "1750829975.294",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.898333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6279424988564848143230083936",
|
"implied_profit": "1459024979.411666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.17375",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4709568741423636107422562951",
|
"implied_profit": "1094268734.55875",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.739",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3767654993138908885938050361",
|
"implied_profit": "875414987.647",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.449166666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3139712494282424071615041967",
|
"implied_profit": "729512489.7058333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.159333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2511769995425939257292033574",
|
"implied_profit": "583609991.7646666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.8695",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1883827496569454442969025180",
|
"implied_profit": "437707493.8235",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "人形机器人收入增速明显降档、亏损收窄慢于机构预期，现金消耗继续压低安全边际。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.0519361115771253",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.17466244789275265",
|
"equity_value_high": "33525248490.4784040",
|
"equity_value_low": "16762624245.2392020",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "悲观情景",
|
"price_high": "66.59745143459988934118381914",
|
"price_low": "33.29872571729994467059190957",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.2340718638918931645637283595",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.6170359319459465822818641798"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "2026年收入接近33亿元人民币公开预测，归母亏损落在机构中位数附近并继续收窄，现金储备可支持研发与交付。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.02814852428653225",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.0519361115771253",
|
"equity_value_high": "50287872735.7176060",
|
"equity_value_low": "33525248490.4784040",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "基准情景",
|
"price_high": "99.89617715189983401177572871",
|
"price_low": "66.59745143459988934118381914",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.148892204162160253154407461",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.2340718638918931645637283595"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "全尺寸人形机器人实现规模交付，毛利率和费用率同步改善，市场继续给予稀缺成长溢价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.11499805118731565",
|
"cagr_low": "0.02814852428653225",
|
"equity_value_high": "75431809103.5764090",
|
"equity_value_low": "50287872735.7176060",
|
"method": "pb",
|
"name": "乐观情景",
|
"price_high": "149.8442657278497510176635931",
|
"price_low": "99.89617715189983401177572871",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.723338306243240379731611191",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.148892204162160253154407461"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
