{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "66.2144999999065644980598118",
|
"price_label": "当前价格处于基准合理区间",
|
"price_position": "WITHIN_BASE_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-0.2066843365140980775610411273"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "128.679749",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "1721505026.5686625"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "1377204021.2549300"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "1147670017.712441666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "983717158.0392357142857142857"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "860752513.28433125"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "688602010.6274650"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "573835008.8562208333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "459068007.0849766666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "344301005.3137325"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "available",
|
"detail": [
|
{
|
"core_assumption": "汇总接口未提供逐家报告日期；估值日仅作为C1汇总快照日期，不替代单家研报。",
|
"estimates": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps": "1.337666666667",
|
"profit": "357911778.41675586"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps": "1.754833333333",
|
"profit": "469530664.70824414"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps": "2.18225",
|
"profit": "583892084.5625"
|
}
|
},
|
"included": true,
|
"institution": "东方财富公开一致预期汇总（覆盖池5家）",
|
"report_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"source_id": "SRC-EM-CONSENSUS-20260804",
|
"statuses": [
|
"CURRENT"
|
]
|
}
|
],
|
"summary": {
|
"2026": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.337666666667",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000001466841919319808007072130493",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "59.73087465734868318198917785",
|
"profit_max": "357911778.41675586",
|
"profit_mean": "357911778.41675586",
|
"profit_median": "357911778.41675586",
|
"profit_min": "357911778.41675586"
|
},
|
"2027": {
|
"eps_mean": "1.754833333333",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00000000000000001118137833076830594414673973",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "45.53138949568725122417552914",
|
"profit_max": "469530664.70824414",
|
"profit_mean": "469530664.70824414",
|
"profit_median": "469530664.70824414",
|
"profit_min": "469530664.70824414"
|
},
|
"2028": {
|
"eps_mean": "2.18225",
|
"eps_profit_reconciliation_gap": "0.00",
|
"institution_count": 1,
|
"pe_on_mean": "36.61358689426051094054301753",
|
"profit_max": "583892084.5625",
|
"profit_mean": "583892084.5625",
|
"profit_median": "583892084.5625",
|
"profit_min": "583892084.5625"
|
}
|
}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-04",
|
"code": "003021.SZ",
|
"company": "兆威机电",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-28",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "0.6268872512722677300755584275",
|
"annual_fcf": "-11112314.15",
|
"book_value_per_share": "19.19308579019805523346261692",
|
"current_fcf": "-20548693.05",
|
"deduct_pe": "101.7559237090692994348533751",
|
"diluted_shares": "267564250.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "19519687254.31",
|
"market_cap": "21378383575.00",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.7852122715572053291872886606",
|
"normalized_pe": "101.7559237090693110588581258",
|
"normalized_profit": "210094732.529999976",
|
"pb": "4.162957477155918265968785515",
|
"price": "79.9",
|
"ps": "12.53510512239592295783864379",
|
"reported_pe": "88.87883157832612707747037586",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "240534030.38",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "210094732.53",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.8989767144900710763863259012",
|
"ttm_revenue": "1705480996.47"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-30439297.850000024",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 0,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 1
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.995",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6267552561197961478919321893",
|
"implied_profit": "1068919178.75",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.196",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5014042048958369183135457514",
|
"implied_profit": "855135343.00",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.663333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.4178368374131974319279547928",
|
"implied_profit": "712612785.8333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.282857142857142857142857143",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3581458606398835130811041082",
|
"implied_profit": "610810959.2857142857142857143",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.9975",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3133776280598980739459660946",
|
"implied_profit": "534459589.375",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.598",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2507021024479184591567728757",
|
"implied_profit": "427567671.50",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.331666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.2089184187065987159639773964",
|
"implied_profit": "356306392.9166666666666666667",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.065333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1671347349652789727711819171",
|
"implied_profit": "285045114.3333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.799",
|
"implied_margin": "0.1253510512239592295783864379",
|
"implied_profit": "213783835.75",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.1565326787523177",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.28387187628782373",
|
"equity_value_high": "9126750349.60",
|
"equity_value_low": "4026507507.25",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "34.11049999990656449805981180",
|
"price_low": "15.04875000023358875485047049",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.5730851063841481289354216295",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.8116551939895670994386674532"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与5家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.029271726894896544",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.12866637061757924",
|
"equity_value_high": "24695912710.80",
|
"equity_value_low": "10737353352.40",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "92.29900000018687100388037640",
|
"price_low": "40.12999999962625799223924721",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "0.155181476848396383027288816",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.4977471839846525908355538522"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "0.18034560013432666",
|
"cagr_low": "0.04907993415606393",
|
"equity_value_high": "48980226876.25",
|
"equity_value_low": "27165503982.0",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "183.0596833330685994111694668",
|
"price_low": "101.5289000006540485135813174",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "1.291109929074700868725525242",
|
"upside_to_low": "0.270699624538849167879615987"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
