{
|
"conclusion": {
|
"base_midpoint": "6.15880309847689075630252101",
|
"price_label": "当前价格高于乐观情景上限",
|
"price_position": "ABOVE_OPTIMISTIC_RANGE",
|
"safety_margin_to_base_midpoint": "-13.98667817823666875558849491"
|
},
|
"engine_version": "1.0.0",
|
"holding_period": {
|
"cumulative_dividend_per_share": "0",
|
"required_exit_price": "148.650073",
|
"required_profit_by_exit_pe": [
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "20",
|
"required_profit": "707574347.4800000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "25",
|
"required_profit": "566059477.9840000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "30",
|
"required_profit": "471716231.6533333333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "35",
|
"required_profit": "404328198.5600000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "40",
|
"required_profit": "353787173.7400000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "50",
|
"required_profit": "283029738.9920000"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "60",
|
"required_profit": "235858115.8266666666666666667"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "75",
|
"required_profit": "188686492.6613333333333333333"
|
},
|
{
|
"exit_pe": "100",
|
"required_profit": "141514869.4960000"
|
}
|
],
|
"required_return": "0.1",
|
"years": 5
|
},
|
"institutions": {
|
"coverage_status": "no_usable_forecasts",
|
"detail": [],
|
"summary": {}
|
},
|
"meta": {
|
"as_of_date": "2026-08-06",
|
"code": "301357.SZ",
|
"company": "北方长龙",
|
"currency": "CNY",
|
"latest_operating_info_date": "2026-04-24",
|
"market": "深圳证券交易所",
|
"report_period_end": "2026-03-31"
|
},
|
"metrics": {
|
"annual_cash_conversion": "-0.1799807468944899849635126223",
|
"annual_fcf": "-51464092.78",
|
"book_value_per_share": "11.98414368718487394957983193",
|
"current_fcf": "-35048135.58",
|
"deduct_pe": "487.0670407303876186509054698",
|
"diluted_shares": "95200000.0",
|
"enterprise_value": "8473610309.94",
|
"market_cap": "8786960000.00",
|
"normalized_eps": "0.1895016338235293865546218487",
|
"normalized_pe": "487.0670407303876834471860035",
|
"normalized_profit": "18040555.5399999976",
|
"pb": "7.701843570075023063277311773",
|
"price": "92.3",
|
"ps": "39.95428369035536194140403131",
|
"reported_pe": "408.8817201100820509805188355",
|
"ttm_attributable_profit": "21490224.60",
|
"ttm_deduct_profit": "18040555.54",
|
"ttm_eps": "0.2257376533613445378151260504",
|
"ttm_revenue": "219925354.39"
|
},
|
"normalization_adjustments": [
|
{
|
"amount": "-3449669.0600000024",
|
"basis": "2025年报加2026年最新累计期减上年同期比较数",
|
"description": "以TTM扣非归母利润替代TTM归母利润作为核心盈利代理"
|
}
|
],
|
"qa": {
|
"error_count": 0,
|
"info_count": 1,
|
"issues": [
|
{
|
"action": "补充法定披露、行情接口或机构预测汇总页来源。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-CORE-SOURCE-MISSING",
|
"message": "核心字段没有由注册表中允许承载核心数字的来源支持。",
|
"recalc_scope": "institutions",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "拆解营运资本、资本开支与回款持续性。",
|
"field": "metrics.annual_fcf",
|
"issue_id": "QA-NEGATIVE-FCF",
|
"message": "最近完整年度简化自由现金流为负。",
|
"recalc_scope": "DCF 与现金流交叉验证",
|
"severity": "WARNING"
|
},
|
{
|
"action": "不得以公司业绩预告或自有情景冒充机构预期。",
|
"field": "institutions",
|
"issue_id": "QA-INSTITUTION-NONE",
|
"message": "估值日没有可用机构盈利预测，已明确记录为空。",
|
"recalc_scope": "机构预期模块",
|
"severity": "INFO"
|
}
|
],
|
"status": "PASS_WITH_WARNINGS",
|
"warning_count": 2
|
},
|
"reverse_pe": [
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "4.615",
|
"implied_margin": "1.997714184517768097070201565",
|
"implied_profit": "439348000.00",
|
"pe": "20"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.692",
|
"implied_margin": "1.598171347614214477656161252",
|
"implied_profit": "351478400.00",
|
"pe": "25"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "3.076666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "1.331809456345178731380134377",
|
"implied_profit": "292898666.6666666666666666667",
|
"pe": "30"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.637142857142857142857142857",
|
"implied_margin": "1.141550962581581769754400895",
|
"implied_profit": "251056000.00",
|
"pe": "35"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "2.3075",
|
"implied_margin": "0.9988570922588840485351007827",
|
"implied_profit": "219674000.00",
|
"pe": "40"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.846",
|
"implied_margin": "0.7990856738071072388280806262",
|
"implied_profit": "175739200.00",
|
"pe": "50"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.538333333333333333333333333",
|
"implied_margin": "0.6659047281725893656900671883",
|
"implied_profit": "146449333.3333333333333333333",
|
"pe": "60"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "1.230666666666666666666666667",
|
"implied_margin": "0.5327237825380714925520537509",
|
"implied_profit": "117159466.6666666666666666667",
|
"pe": "75"
|
},
|
{
|
"implied_eps": "0.923",
|
"implied_margin": "0.3995428369035536194140403131",
|
"implied_profit": "87869600.00",
|
"pe": "100"
|
}
|
],
|
"scenarios": [
|
{
|
"assumption": "需求、验收或价格低于预期，利润下修且估值回归低位。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.48258641931783486",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.548091211027906",
|
"equity_value_high": "325857534.50",
|
"equity_value_low": "165612299.94",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "悲观",
|
"price_high": "3.422873261554621848739495798",
|
"price_low": "1.739624999369747899159663866",
|
"role": "pessimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9629157826483789615521181387",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9811524918811511603557999581"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "以TTM归一化利润与无家机构覆盖池预期为锚，按行业成长和周期属性定价。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.38244184225551014",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.4654922108056716",
|
"equity_value_high": "789274304.70",
|
"equity_value_low": "383361805.25",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "基准",
|
"price_high": "8.290696477941176470588235294",
|
"price_low": "4.026909719012605042016806723",
|
"role": "base",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.9101766362086546427888598560",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9563715090031137048535557235"
|
},
|
{
|
"assumption": "订单、产品结构和规模效应超预期，利润与估值中枢同步上移。",
|
"cagr_high": "-0.2963801082385733",
|
"cagr_low": "-0.3705570117428262",
|
"equity_value_high": "1515406665.12",
|
"equity_value_low": "868201735.45",
|
"method": "pe",
|
"name": "乐观",
|
"price_high": "15.91813723865546218487394958",
|
"price_low": "9.119766128676470588235294118",
|
"role": "optimistic",
|
"upside_to_high": "-0.8275391415096916339666961042",
|
"upside_to_low": "-0.9011942997976547065196609521"
|
}
|
]
|
}
|
